The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Thursday, 8 October, that El Niño is expected to intensify before peaking in December and could persist until February 2027, with sea surface temperatures potentially reaching record highs.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said there was nearly a 100% chance the phenomenon would continue through February 2027, potentially making it one of the strongest El Niño events since 1950.
The WMO forecast sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, where El Niño develops, could rise 3.7 degrees Celsius above normal between October and December. This would significantly exceed the previous record anomaly of 2.6 degrees Celsius recorded between November 2015 and January 2016.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon involving warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. It can raise global average temperatures and disrupt rainfall patterns worldwide, bringing drought to some regions and heavy rain to others. The phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years.
Earlier data from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) showed that the global average temperature in August reached 16.96 degrees Celsius, matching the record set in July 2023, the hottest month ever recorded at the time.
Meanwhile, researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab estimated in September that this year’s potential “super El Niño” could cause up to 451,000 excess deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027.