BANGKOK — In collaboration with the American Studies Association in Thailand and the Faculty of Political Science at Thammasat College, the Matichon Group hosted a seminar entitled “US Election 2024: Deep Dive into the Race for the White House”.
The event at Gaysorn Urban Resort last Thursday, October 17, featured prominent speakers such as Professor Dr. Surakiart Sathirathai, Chancellor of Chulalongkorn College and former Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister. Experts from various fields also provided insights and attracted a large audience.
Dr. Surakiart Sathirathai, President of the Council of Chulalongkorn University and former Foreign Minister and Deputy PM, delivered a keynote address examining how different scenarios would unfold if either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the election.
He said that some people have expressed the opinion that if Donald Trump wins and returns to office, the world will face upheaval, but US politics will be stable. On the other hand, they believe Kamala Harris would have the opposite effect.
However, in his own opinion, regardless of who wins, global instability is inevitable. The difference is that with Harris, the situation might be more predictable, whereas with Trump, the uncertainty would be harder to anticipate because Trump is a negotiator, and his decisions would depend on negotiation outcomes
The World Will Remain Turbulent
He believes that no matter who wins the election, the US approach towards the Alternative International Economic Order, which could potentially reduce US power – such as the expansion of BRICS and reducing dependence on the dollar – will face similar opposition.
Regarding political issues, he thinks the US is unlikely to change much in terms of international conflicts, and the world will remain turbulent. Although Thailand is not a conflicting party, the country has been severely affected economically.
“In some conflicts, we have the capability to act as a bridge, but we shouldn’t try to bridge matters where we lack influence. For instance, in the Russia-Ukraine conflict or Middle East issues, we don’t have the power to mediate. However, we can bridge conflicts where we do have some influence, such as in Myanmar’s case and humanitarian assistance. Thailand must take a leading role in these matters,” he said.
In his closing remarks, Dr. Surakiart concluded as he began his keynote, stating that regardless of who wins, global turbulence will continue. The difference lies in whether this turbulence will be predictable or unpredictable. Therefore, Thailand must carefully monitor the signals and conduct future foresight.
Key Points on Trump’s Policies: Tax Cuts
In the second seminar session, Pravit Rojanaphruk, senior reporter from Khaosod English, moderated a discussion between two speakers: Professor Dr. Siriphan Noksuan Sawaddee from the Faculty of Political Science at Chulalongkorn University, who analyzed Trump’s campaign policies, and Phil Robertson, former Deputy Asia Director at Human Rights Watch, who summarized key Democratic Party policies.
Professor Dr. Siriphan noted that Donald Trump, representing the Republican Party, appeals to voters by strengthening the “power of the purse” through tax cuts. In Trump’s first term, the corporate tax rate was reduced from 35 percent to 21 percent. If re-elected, Trump wants to lower it further to 15 percent, while Kamala Harris wants to raise it to 28 percent.
When it comes to immigration control, Trump’s tough immigration policy suits supporters of the “America First” ideology, who emphasize the need to protect American jobs and prevent crime. The Biden administration saw a record number of immigrants enter the country in 2023, with over 300,000 legal and illegal entries, while the numbers were lower under Trump.
Trump also intends to reshape global trade rules by raising tariffs on imports from all countries by 10-20 percent, with a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods. This is in contrast to the current average tariffs of 3 percent. Trump’s trade policy, initiated in 2018, treats China as a strategic threat, a stance that is likely to continue under any future US administration, including Biden or Harris.
Key Points on Harris’s Policies: Human Rights Focus
Analyzing Kamala Harris’s policies, Phil Robertson highlighted her emphasis on human rights in domestic and foreign affairs, including abortion rights. He predicted she would take a stand against products made under exploitative labor conditions.
In contrast to Trump’s tariff-centric approach, Harris favors negotiations with China and promotes domestic production in order to survive global competition.
Harris also disagrees with Trump’s stance on NATO and Ukraine. While Trump proposes reducing NATO support and allowing Russia’s control over Ukraine, Harris would likely uphold U.S. commitments to European allies.
It is expected that both candidates will pursue similar strategies in Asia to contain China’s influence while securing economic interests.
Thailand’s Positioning: Strategic Balance Needed
The following discussion session has the topic: ‘How does the American election affect Thailand?
Associate Professor Dr. Jittiphon Poonkham from Thammasat University’s Faculty of Political Science pointed out that both Trump and Biden aim to maintain U.S. global leadership, build democratic alliances, and counter China’s growing influence.
Dr. Jittiphon notes that Thailand has been only nominally allied with the US and has had minimal substantive cooperation compared to other key US allies such as Japan or South Korea. Under Biden, the US has pursued a “friend-shoring” strategy, i.e. it has established production facilities exclusively in allied countries. Thailand was not included in this framework.
So the crucial question for Thailand is whether it can become part of the US friendshoring network and what steps it needs to take to achieve this status.
Dr. Jittiphon suggests that Thailand should consider whether US national interests are aligned with its own. Thailand must choose its alliances based on where its interests lie, but base its actions on international principles to maintain an honorable and respectable position on the global stage.
Support for “Multi-Directional Diplomacy”
Assistant Professor Dr. Prapeer Apichartskul from the Faculty of Social Sciences at Srinakharinwirot University emphasized that Kamala Harris’s human rights policy is likely to continue Biden’s approach of integrating democracy and human rights into US foreign policy.
The implications for Thailand could be that US-Thailand relations will again be tied to human rights, which could lead to sanctions or the suspension of certain privileges. To avoid such repercussions, Thailand must demonstrate its commitment to human rights in order to improve its international standing and promote global acceptance.
During Trump’s presidency, Thailand was faced with the revocation of the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which was attributed to human trafficking and intellectual property violations. Should Trump return to power, similar unpredictable measures could be repeated.
In terms of foreign policy, Dr. Prapeer commended the previous Thai government for navigating difficult situations where a choice of direction was inevitable. He noted that not only Thailand but also other ASEAN countries are under pressure to choose sides between the major powers. However, if Trump wins, ASEAN countries will likely face more pressure than in a scenario with Harris as president.
Recommendations on Trade and Investment
Panithan Paworolarnvithaya, deputy secretary general of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), emphasized that both Trump and Harris prioritize their countries’ economic and trade interests. Therefore, Thailand must plan and prepare to adapt to possible global economic changes, regardless of who wins the US election.
Once the United States elects its president, trade wars, geopolitical tensions, currency wars, and how the U.S. views China as a national threat are the issues to watch and monitor. As a result, there is a possibility that more Chinese goods will flow into Thailand as it will become more difficult to export to the US.
However, it is suggested that Thailand should not take a clear-cut side, but rather position itself to engage with both parties. Thailand should strive to be liked by both countries. Negotiations must be skillfully conducted to create opportunities for trade and investment with both the US and China.
In terms of investment, US investment in Thailand remains low. Therefore, the government needs to set the right policy course, act professionally and build confidence to attract more trade and investment.
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