This week’s ruling on May 22 by the Supreme Administrative Court against former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, ordering the former premier (who is a fugitive) to pay 10 billion baht in damage compensation incurred by her rice-pledging scheme, was a clear reminder that her elder brother, former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, who is widely regarded as the real PM today, is not in full control of Thailand.
By Saturday, two days after the ruling, Thaksin’s aide Jakraphon Penkair had to attempt to quell a rumour by saying Thaksin did not flee abroad and is still in Thailand. Jakraphob said the rumor that Thaksin had fled to Cambodia after an unfavorable ruling by the Supreme Administrative Court against Yingluck was just that – a rumour.
Jakraphob wrote on FB that Thaksin is still “laughing in Bangkok,” adding that when Thaksin is very active, people criticise him for overdoing it, but now that he is “quiet,” people imagine things, particularly those in the opposition camp.
The rumor came amidst a probe into whether Thaksin was given privileged treatment during his stay while serving his corruption-related crimes at the Police General Hospital. Three medical doctors were found to have distorted their examinations of Thaksin’s health status, which enabled Thaksin to be transferred from prison to the hospital after serving less than a full night in prison. The worst-case scenario for Thaksin is that he may be ordered by the court to return to serve his time in a proper prison, thus the rumor that he had fled the kingdom.
“It’s hard to placate them,” Jakraphob wrote, adding that Thaksin has an important lunch appointment at a major hotel in Bangkok on May 30.
Meanwhile, on Friday, a prominent Finland-based lese-majeste fugitive, Janya Yimprasert, reposted his open letter to Thaksin, which was originally penned in February 22, 2022, calling Thaksin to stand with those who want to see the monarchy institution reformed.
In another related development, prominent royalist law expert Assoc Prof Jade Donavanik declared earlier this week that he has lost faith in the democratic system after seeing Paetongtarn Shinawatra running, or ruining, the country, and calls for the overthrow of the democratic system – a thinly veiled call for a military coup.
It also comes at a time when the Pheu Thai Party is in conflict with its royalist coalition partner, the Bhumjaithai Party. The latter is widely believed to be in control of the majority of the Senate, which are now facing a probe by the Election Commission over alleged widespread rigging of last year’s senatorial election.
These are reminders that although the Pheu Thai Party has been in power for nearly two years now, the marriage of convenience between the Thaksin camp and the royalist camp is fragile, and that given the right conditions, the latter is more than willing to betray the former (or vice versa).
The Pheu Thai Party was originally chosen to join the Conservative royalist camp (which includes the military and diehard ultraroyalists) because the more progressive monarchy-reform movement supported the then Move Forward Party (now known as the People’s Party) and won most MP seats in the general election. In the end, Thaksin’s Pheu Thai Party outmaneuvered the Move Forward Party and its leader Pita Limjaroenrat and managed to form a coalition with conservative royalist parties, including Bhumjaithai.
The popularity of the opposition People’s Party appears to be decreasing, however, judging from its lacklustre performance in local elections over the past year and less charismatic new party leader, Nattapong Ruangpanyawut.
This means we can expect more tension between the Thaksin-Pheu Thai camp and the conservative royalist camp, particularly since the latter has never trusted Thaksin or thought he was a genuine royalist to begin with.
The political “honeymoon” between the two camps is over, if there was any.
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