BANGKOK — Thaksin Shinawatra, former Prime Minister of Thailand, gave his first public speech and shared his vision after being officially pardoned. This event took place on a Thursday night, August 22, 2024, at Siam Paragon. His speech and subsequent interviews lasted for over two hours.
He discussed economic policies likely to be implemented by the government led by Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, his daughter. Thaksin also addressed political matters, including the formation of the government and the origins of his conflict with General Prawit Wongsuwan, who was one of the three leaders of the military coup that ousted Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, from power.
“If anyone wants my advice, you’ll have to buy me a coffee. I’ll drop by for a chat,” Thaksin Shinawatra, the former Prime Minister, shared his vision and discussed solutions for Thailand’s economic and political issues moving forward at the Vision for Thailand 2024 forum.
Key Points:
Thaksin noted that “Thai people no longer smile as they used to” because they are heavily indebted and their economic opportunities are limited, leading to an unhappy life.
He expressed concern about the increasing dependence on superstition in rural areas, where drug addiction, gambling and alcohol addiction are rife, weakening the workforce needed to boost the economy.
He criticized the lack of cleanliness and inadequate maintenance of infrastructure, attributing this to a lack of accountability and a focus on individual organizational success rather than the national good.
“The essence of the nation is to think together about how the country can be improved and how we can make a contribution.”
Debt Traps:
- Thaksin spoke about the debt trap that many Thais find themselves in, explaining that while government debt could be tackled through GDP growth.
- Over 90% of household debt burdens the people. He doesn’t want to see Thais losing their homes and cars. He proposes restructuring personal debt. “If we can ‘haircut’ and restructure business debt, why can’t we do the same for personal debt?”
- Thailand’s underground economy is large, about 50% of the official economy. If we can bring it above ground, GDP will increase by 50%, which will reduce the debt ratio and improve repayment capacity.
- Drugs have a significant impact on people. It’s difficult to suppress because the production base is abroad. The dealers in Thailand are mostly small-scale, with the large suppliers delivering directly. Therefore, the solution is to rehabilitate drug users, which reduces demand, making it harder for supply to thrive.
- “Our industry is lagging behind the world. Agriculture leads the way in lifestyle, but we lag behind in technology.”
As for the stock market, he said that it has lost investors’ confidence. The management and resolution of problems is not quick and precise.
External Opportunities:
- Thaksin urged Thai businesses to compete globally, with government support, and to adopt strategic thinking and robust capabilities.
- He pointed out the high cost of living and energy, noting the need for research and development to reduce energy costs.
- Thaksin recognized global geopolitics as both an opportunity and a challenge for Thailand, especially in the context of U.S.-China trade relations, urging the country to position itself within global supply chains.
- He mentioned the rapid growth of technology, particularly AI, and the need for Thailand to adapt to these changes.
- “Thailand is fully aware of its problems but refuses to address them,” he said. He pointed out that this is a weakness of the country, and the government needs to assign responsible parties to resolve each issue.
Solutions and Proposals:
Thaksin suggested that the Ministry of Finance should work with the Bank of Thailand to align monetary and fiscal policies while respecting the central bank’s independence.
He proposed the use of digital wallets to stimulate the economy, introduce new technology to the public, and eventually integrate them with government services.
Digital wallets can hit three targets with one bullet:
- Stimulate the economy: Digital wallets are backed by blockchain technology and smart contracts, which allow for precise control and use in different areas. “The economy will flourish across the country.”
- Educate the Thai people about technology: “It’s not difficult.”
- In the future, they can be used for all government services. The government may also issue bonds and sell them to retail investors through digital wallets.
- If there is opposition and misunderstanding about digital wallets, the format may change.
- It could start by targeting 13.5 million vulnerable people and 1 million people with disabilities, totaling 14.5 million people, to stimulate the economy with over 100 billion baht in September.
- In October, when the new budget is released, nearly 30 million people who have registered will also receive benefits.
- Digital wallets can stimulate the economy more accurately than cash, as some people may spend cash in ways that stimulate the economy less effectively or with a lower multiplier effect.
- To restructure industries, we must attract investment. The former Prime Minister cited NVIDIA, a technology company that is expanding opportunities in semiconductors. Thailand should position itself as the safest haven for the industry.
- “Anyone who wants to sell to China, America, or Europe can set up in Thailand without any problems,” as we do not face geopolitical issues.
- There is significant interest in establishing data centers in Thailand, but challenges remain regarding electricity costs and clean energy.
- With Chinese EVs entering the market, I suggest Thailand becomes a production hub for right-hand drive vehicles.
- Regarding the automotive industry ecosystem, as combustion vehicles are phased out, we need to negotiate to ensure Chinese electric vehicles use Thai components or local content.
China is developing and launching a large number of satellites; Thailand should negotiate to collaborate. - Thai SMEs are struggling because they are too similar to each other, leading to market domination by Chinese products. We need to improve and design products to be more unique to compete, while also ensuring protection and fairness.
- Promote “soft power” in all forms, including esports, art, fashion, and Thai cuisine.
Enhance agriculture and improve production efficiency to increase profitability. - Increase potential from tourism by expanding Suvarnabhumi Airport; given Thailand’s location, there are still many opportunities.
- Develop “Entertainment Complexes,” with casino areas comprising no more than 10% of the space. Each investment would exceed 100 billion baht.
- Large-scale public investments must address systemic issues, such as flood and drought problems. One proposal is to reclaim land in Bang Khun Thian and Pak Nam to reduce congestion in Bangkok and increase green space, allowing only electric trains to operate in the area. This would also help prevent flooding in Bangkok.
- Connect the world with high-speed rail from Bangkok to Nong Khai, which must be completed to link with China’s Silk Road initiative.
- Implement the 20-baht electric train fare by charging tolls on cars in the capital and creating an infrastructure fund to improve traffic systems.
- Manage resources and resolve maritime boundary disputes with neighboring countries to achieve the best benefits for the people.
- Establish Thailand as a financial center by inviting global banks to set up in the country for international transactions, while Thai banks should set up branches abroad to enjoy reciprocal rights.
- Amend laws on foreign land ownership with rules that benefit both economic growth and access for Thai citizens.
- Online gambling causes a massive outflow of Thai money; we need to manage taxes and ensure that the benefits are used, particularly in education.
- Make the tax system fairer and more competitive for both living and working, by systematically managing value-added tax.
- Reform the bureaucracy to reduce public spending and the number of personnel, utilizing more technology.
Acknowledging Reality:
- “We live in a capitalist system. Whether we like it or not, it’s a capitalist economy. But many capitalist economies have collapsed because of a lack of compassion.”
“If there is no compassion for those who are less fortunate, it will be difficult for the country to grow, and it will grow in a crippled way.” - “Before I finish, I’d like to ask one thing: I want Thais to love one another. We are all Thai. I’ve been through the most, seen both hell and heaven in the same lifetime.”
- “Today, if you ask why I can get along with this person or that person, I consider the past as the past. It’s not that I’ve forgotten—I remember everything—but I want to live in the present and the future. I want to see Thais united.”
- “I love this country and want to see it prosper. I’m ready to support both the public and private sectors from behind the scenes. If anyone needs my advice, you’ll have to buy me a coffee, and I’ll drop by for a chat.”
Cause of the falling out with Prawit
Regarding the question of whether he has talked to General Prawit Wongsuwan, leader of the Palang Pracharath Party, since returning to Thailand a year ago, Thaksin said that before coming back, he had phone conversations through intermediaries about forming a government together and exchanging pleasantries. However, they haven’t spoken directly or met in person. He added that General Prawit doesn’t know him anymore, only remembering him from when he was the 1st Army Area Commander until becoming the Army Commander-in-Chief.
Thaksin revealed the reason for their estrangement: When General Prawit retired, he wanted to become the chairman of the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC). Thaksin commented, “How can a soldier become the NACC chairman? Does he know the law?” This comment was relayed to Prawit by his friend Suchon Chaleekrua, a former deputy speaker of the House of Representatives, which angered Prawit. They haven’t spoken since, and Thaksin added, “Why should I talk to him? After that, I was betrayed.”
When asked if he thinks the Palang Pracharath Party will be a significant variable or obstacle for Paetongtarn’s government, Thaksin said no, because they have enough votes.
When asked if he had anything to say to General Prawit, Thaksin said, “We’re both old now. He should listen to some Buddhist teachings to calm his mind. I’ve been abroad for 17 years, faced many issues and cases. At first, I was angry, then indifferent, and later I even laughed at another case.”
When asked how he would support his daughter, the youngest and first female Prime Minister, Thaksin said he must do his duty, help with ideas and suggestions, but the decision-making is hers. When he finds areas that need improvement or directions the country should take, he will tell her. However, the decisions ultimately lie with the Prime Minister and the Cabinet.
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