BANGKOK — Thailand’s tourism sector is facing a double blow as currency appreciation and weakening demand from its largest market converge during what should be peak season.
The country expects just 200,000 Chinese visitors during this year’s Golden Week holiday—down 24% from 262,000 in 2024—with projected revenues falling 17% to 9.1 billion baht ($282.5 million), according to the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT).
The decline marks an intensifying challenge for an industry already grappling with a 7% drop in overall international arrivals between January and September 2025.
Currency Pressure Mounting
The Thai baht’s persistent strength has emerged as a critical factor driving tourists toward competing destinations. The appreciation has hit hardest in key long-haul markets where exchange rates directly influence travel decisions.
U.S. arrivals dropped 6% to 36,800 in early September as the baht strengthened 7% against the dollar since May. The currency shift has made Thailand significantly more expensive for American travelers—a crucial “super long-haul” segment known for high spending per trip.
Chinese arrivals fell even more sharply, plunging 33% to 205,200 during the same period. While the strong baht contributed to the decline, TAT Governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool pointed to safety perception issues and fierce regional competition as primary drivers.
Competitors Capitalize on Currency Shifts
Japan has become the biggest beneficiary, with the yen’s 15% depreciation slashing travel costs and making it the top destination for Chinese Golden Week travelers. South Korea has added competitive pressure by waiving visas for Chinese tour groups of three or more traveling through approved agencies—a policy running through June 2026.
“Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam are all aggressively competing for Chinese tourists with both pricing and visa strategies,” Thapanee said.
European markets present a contrasting picture. UK arrivals rose 1% to 33,800, Germany climbed 5%, and France gained 3% as the euro and pound strengthened against the baht—making Thailand more affordable for European travelers.
Japanese visitor numbers dropped 6% in early September despite only 1% baht appreciation against the yen, though full-year arrivals are still projected to grow 15-18%.
Market Fundamentals Under Strain
Beyond currency pressures, Thailand’s tourism sector is contending with economic headwinds in key source markets, U.S. retaliatory trade tariffs, the Thai-Cambodian border situation, and lingering safety concerns.
China remains Thailand’s top source market despite the decline. Chinese tourists spend an average 6,600 baht per person daily during 6-8 night stays. Some positive signals are emerging: advance flight bookings are up 5% compared to 2024, with 30 additional weekly flights added for Golden Week from cities including Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, and Kunming.
“Despite current challenges, if Thailand can maintain confidence in safety and travel convenience while promoting diverse tourism offerings, there’s opportunity for recovery,” Thapanee said, pointing to Chinese New Year 2026 as a potential rebound period.
The Golden Week period runs from September 26 to October 8—a 13-day holiday coinciding with the Mid-Autumn Festival. For Thailand’s tourism industry, it’s becoming a test of resilience amid mounting headwinds.
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