BANGKOK — Thailand’s economic planning agency revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast upward to 2% on Monday, despite the economy showing signs of deceleration in the second quarter.
The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) reported that Thailand’s gross domestic product grew 2.8% year-on-year in Q2 2025, down from 3.2% growth in the first quarter. Secretary-General Danucha Pichayanan attributed the slowdown primarily to weaker non-agricultural production, particularly in tourism-related services, though agricultural output continued expanding.
“The main factor was the slowdown in non-agricultural production, especially tourism-related services, while agricultural production continued to expand,” Danucha said during the announcement.
The revised forecast represents an improvement from NESDC’s previous projection of 1.8% growth. The agency now expects GDP to grow between 1.8% and 2.3% for the full year, compared to 2.5% growth recorded in 2024.
Mixed Sectoral Performance
Agricultural production remained robust, growing 6.0% in Q2 following 6.2% expansion in the previous quarter. However, non-agricultural sectors slowed to 2.5% growth from 2.9% in Q1.
Manufacturing showed improvement, accelerating to 0.8% growth from 0.4% in the previous quarter, driven by faster industrial production and improvements in electricity, gas, and steam sectors. The services sector, meanwhile, weakened to 3.5% growth from 4.1%, hurt by slower activity in accommodation, food services, transportation, and construction.
On the expenditure side, investment surged 5.8%, up from 4.7% in Q1, led by private sector machinery and equipment purchases. Public investment rose 10.1%, though this was slower than the previous quarter’s 26.3% pace.
Economic Outlook
Looking ahead, NESDC expects inflation to remain subdued at 0.0-0.5% for 2025, while the current account is projected to maintain a surplus equivalent to 2.1% of GDP.
The seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rate slowed to 0.6% in Q2 from 0.7% in the previous quarter. At current prices, GDP reached 4.58 trillion baht, with gross national income totaling 4.39 trillion baht after accounting for net primary income payments abroad.
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