Thailand risks losing recoverable petroleum resources and economic value from ageing petroleum fields if policy decisions on expiring concessions are delayed, according to Dr. Kurujit Nakornthap, Executive Director, Petroleum and Energy Institute of Thailand (PEIT) and former permanent secretary of the Energy Ministry.
Kurujit said many mature petroleum fields still contain commercially recoverable resources, but maintaining production requires continuous investment for drilling and field development. Without timely policy decisions, operators may delay investment, causing production to decline and disruption before concessions formally expire.
“An ageing field does not necessarily mean that its petroleum resources have been exhausted,” he said. “The remaining resources require more investment and technical expertise especially at the late stage of production. Without clarity over future operating rights, companies cannot commit to an investment.”
He said the government should evaluate each petroleum field individually rather than relying on a single policy for all expiring concessions. Depending on the remaining reserves, production potential and economic conditions, options could include extending existing concessions under revised conditions, opening competitive bidding, adjusting investment terms or proceeding with decommissioning where production is no longer viable.
For mature fields that still have strong production potential, allowing the existing operator to continue under transparent and measurable conditions may reduce disruption because existing operators already possess field knowledge, production data and operational infrastructure. However, he stressed that any extension should be subject to new investment commitments and clear public-interest conditions rather than being granted automatically.
Competitive bidding remains an important policy option only when it can deliver better technology, stronger investment or greater returns to the state. Nevertheless, changing operators requires sufficient preparation to ensure production continuity and avoid unnecessary disruption.
Kurujit said the most important issue is not whether Thailand ultimately extends concessions or launches new bidding rounds, but whether decisions are made early enough to maintain investment momentum.
“Petroleum projects require years of planning,” he said. “If policy decisions come too late, investment slows, drilling is postponed and production may decline before replacement arrangements are ready.”
He also called for greater flexibility under Thailand’s Petroleum Act so that the government can adopt different approaches for different fields while maintaining transparent decision-making and improving coordination of environmental and permitting processes.
Maintaining domestic gas production is increasingly important for Thailand’s long-term energy security. If production falls more rapidly than expected, the country will rely more heavily on imported LNG, increasing exposure to global price volatility, transportation costs and geopolitical risks.
“The priority is not to predetermine whether concessions should be extended or rebid,” Kurujit said. “The priority is to make timely, evidence-based decisions that preserve production, maximise the remaining value of petroleum resources and strengthen Thailand’s long-term energy security.”