Earlier this week, on Monday, I was invited to meet a Bangkok-based Japanese journalist working for a leading Japanese news outlet at his Bangkok office. The objective of the meeting was straightforward – to help explain why many Thai netizens attacked the Japanese Embassy recently after the Japanese government tried to persuade the Thai side to reopen the border between Thailand and Cambodia so Japanese companies’ supply chain will not continue to be affected by the closed border.
The answer I gave was anything but simple. I reassured the baffled Japanese journalist that this was nothing personal to do with Japan or specifically targeted at Japan, however.
After all, Thailand was spared the brunt of the Japanese Imperial Army when it invaded the country during World War II as Thailand quickly switched sides to join Japan back then. Today, the Japanese expat community in Bangkok is arguably the largest in Asia, numbering more than 50,000 strong. Most Thais love Japanese food. But then there’s this not so little thing called ultra-nationalism.
Apparently, ultra-nationalism has taken the better of these Thais. Their reactions against the Japanese Embassy was not just myopic but a failure to perceive the big picture and to even defend Thai national interests.
Sure enough, a few days after the hour-long meeting, some Thai netizens were celebrating again upon reading some local Thai news outlets reporting that some Japanese companies are considering moving from Cambodia to elsewhere due to the negative impacts from the prolonged closure of Thailand-Cambodia border which affected the supply chain.
The news is definitely not good news for Thailand because, on the other hand, it forces Japanese investors to ask themselves: How stable and reliable is using Thailand as a regional base for various production operations when a not-insignificant number of Thais are easily swayed, support the border closure, and are ready to curse the Japanese embassy and businesses in Thailand?
It is pure and plain ultra-nationalism and a failure to see the long-term overall picture of how such actions will affect Japanese confidence in investing in Thailand.
Ask Gemini to analyse my train of thought, if you are not convinced:
Based on your detailed observation, the issue you’ve raised is indeed a complex one with potential significant implications for Thailand’s economic reputation and its role as a regional manufacturing and supply chain hub.
Here’s a breakdown of the key points and potential consequences:
The Problem: Supply Chain Fragility and Regional Interconnectedness
The reported consideration by Japanese investors to pull investment from Cambodia due to border closures with Thailand highlights a crucial reality: the supply chains of Japanese companies often operate across both countries. Thailand is frequently the main production base or logistical hub, with Cambodia serving as a vital part of the downstream or upstream process.
Interdependence: The border being closed, even if the dispute is primarily between Thailand and Cambodia, directly damages the operations of companies relying on cross-border logistics, making the entire regional operation unstable.
Thailand’s Role: For many companies, Thailand is the “linchpin.” If the linchpin itself becomes associated with the instability of regional operations—even through local political or social sentiment that affects policy—it forces a serious re-evaluation of its long-term reliability.
The Risk to Thailand’s Investment Climate:
Your point that this news is not good for Thailand is well-founded. The core issue is investor confidence, which is built on predictability, stability, and reliability.
Political Risk/Social Unrest: When local sentiment, particularly intense nationalism (“ความคลั่งชาติ”), translates into widespread public support for actions (like border closures) that severely damage regional commerce, it’s perceived as a non-business risk. Investors factor in a “risk premium” for such environments.
Hub Stability: The primary reason Japan invested heavily in Thailand was its reputation for logistical excellence, skilled labour, and political stability (at least compared to some neighbours). The perceived potential for uncoordinated or emotionally driven actions that disrupt the supply chain directly undermines Thailand’s competitive advantage as a regional base.
Long-Term View: As the Japanese journalist noted, the concern is the lack of a long-term, holistic perspective (“ความไม่สามารถมองภาพรวมระยะยาว”). Companies plan decades ahead. If they see the possibility of irrational, sentiment-driven disruptions, they will prioritize moving high-value or essential production to genuinely more stable locations globally, or diversify within the region (e.g., Vietnam, Indonesia) to mitigate “Thailand risk.”
Conclusion: The potential withdrawal of Japanese investment from Cambodia over a supply chain issue tied to the Thai-Cambodian border closure serves as a warning signal for Thailand’s standing as an investment hub. It compels investors to ask: If local political or nationalistic sentiment can so easily disrupt a core supply chain function, how secure is our investment here?
“This is an issue where economic reality (the need for stable, predictable logistics) clashes directly with nationalistic sentiment (the support for border actions), and the former is often the deciding factor for multinational corporations.”
Artificial Intelligence aside, I told the Japanese journalist that one could have replaced the name of Japan with China or the US and it would make no difference, as it was not specifically targeted at Japan. Sure enough, by Friday, it was China’s turn, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman was on damage control mode by saying during a press conference in Beijing that China is neutral on the issue of Thai-Cambodian conflict.
Foreign ministry spokesperson’s remarks on Thailand-Cambodia border conflict on October 10 can be found below:
“ Q: Recently, Western media have reported that China provided large amounts of weapons aid to Cambodia, questioning whether China is taking sides in the Cambodia-Thailand border conflict and misinterpreting China’s defence cooperation with relevant countries, which has aroused concern. What is China’s comment?
”A: Since the Cambodia-Thailand border conflict broke out, China, as a friendly neighbour of both countries, upholding a fair and impartial position, actively promoted talks for peace, promoted the foreign ministers of China, Cambodia and Thailand to reach the “Anning Consensus” and held the China-Cambodia-Thailand trilateral informal meeting, dispatched the Special Envoy for Asian Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China to Cambodia and Thailand on multiple occasions for mediation. With the constructive and active facilitation of China, Malaysia and others, Cambodia and Thailand reached a ceasefire consensus and are maintaining communication through bilateral mechanisms.
”China supports Cambodia and Thailand in resolving the dispute through dialogue and consultation, supports Malaysia, the rotating chair of ASEAN to promote a political solution through the ASEAN Way. China is willing to continue to mediate and promote dialogues in its own way based on the wishes of both the Cambodian side and the Thai side, and to play a constructive role in consolidating the ceasefire consensus and peacefully resolving the dispute. Relevant parties expressed high appreciation for the irreplaceable role played by China.
”China is conducting normal defence cooperation with ASEAN countries, including Cambodia and Thailand. Some Western media outlets attempted to provoke disputes between China and the relevant friendly countries, but it is doomed to fail.”
Now, how can we explain Thai ultra-nationalism?
I told the Japanese reporter that it’s partly a result of a sense of exceptionalism among many Thais created by the fact that we kept being reminded that Thailand was never directly colonised. They are too easily overzealous and get triggered at anything perceived as slightly a threat to their national sovereignty. They were taught at schools how the country had to give up territories (or rather control over some territories) to colonial France and Great Britain in order to not be colonised over a century ago.
So as expected, some Thais continue to be upset as on Wednesday, Chinese Ambassador to Cambodia Wang Wenbin posted the following message on Facebook.
“China firmly supports Cambodia in safeguarding its national sovereignty, security and development interests, and will always be a reliable partner in Cambodia’s development.”
The message was read by many ultranationalist Thais as a declaration that China is taking sides with Cambodia in the conflict and as a result, China continues to be criticised.
The focus from Japan has now shifted to China, the latter accused of not being a “true friend” of Thailand, or a Janus-face superpower.
And here is how a local Thai-language media reported about it earlier this week:
Chinese Ambassador to Cambodia’s Statement Draws Massive Thai Backlash
”The Chinese Ambassador to Cambodia clearly stated China’s unwavering support for Cambodia, calling it an “ever-reliable partner.”
“China firmly supports Cambodia in safeguarding its national sovereignty, security, and development interests, and will always be a reliable partner in Cambodia’s development,” posted Mr. Wang Wenbin on the official Facebook page of the Chinese Ambassador to Cambodia.
“Reports indicate that this post sparked a fierce backlash.
“Examples of the heated comments include:
“Now we know who provides weapons to the Khmer.”
“Before issuing this statement, did you talk to your Thai embassy counterparts first?”
“Don’t call China a brother to Thailand anymore. Thank you for what the Chinese Ambassador has announced. We Thai-Chinese people now know the truth. Thailand has never taken advantage of you; we thought we were brothers, as your leader said. Today, our eyes have been opened. Thank you.”
“You’re supporting a country of scammers, the hub of call centers??”
“Says one thing in Thailand, says another in Cambodia. This is China.”
“LOL. China is China.”
“What about the people of Chinese descent in Thailand? What about the people of Thai descent in China? Is this the long-standing brotherly relationship? Utterly disappointed. Ultimately, Thailand will turn to the US, because the US will soon go inspect the landmines in Cambodia.”
“Do you want a share of the oil and natural gas?”
“China is doing this purely for its own self-interest, not adhering to what is right or just, and not considering its relationship with Thailand. It’s terrible.”
“Thailand has never invaded another country’s territory first. We don’t want anyone’s land. In the past, we defended our sovereign territory and never retaliated by firing weapons at civilians or hospitals. And in Thailand, whose fault was it that a younger sibling died in their grandmother’s arms, and a husband and father lost his wife and children in a convenience store? (Referring to cross-border incidents/violence). Not to mention the almost 10 Thai soldiers who lost their legs because certain countries didn’t adhere to agreements, blah blah. And who knows where all that financial support is going? Not to mention being the center of call centers and scammers, cheating people all over the world out of hundreds of billions of money. Is this the country you are openly supporting?”
_____