BANGKOK — International schools in Thailand continue to grow, contrary to the overall declining number of students and schools in Thailand due to falling birth rates, according to a leading Thai research center.
Kasikorn Research Center stated this growth is attributed to the increasing popularity of foreign education curricula and the rising number of parents with high educational investment potential.
The overall number of students in Thailand has been steadily decreasing, with a 1.7% drop in 2024 compared to the previous year. In contrast, the number of students in international schools increased by 10.2%.
Looking at birth statistics, which have been consistently declining, the number of students is expected to decrease. Between 2012-2024, the average annual birth rate declined by 4.5%, while the overall number of students in the system decreased by 0.9%. However, the number of students in international schools grew at an average rate of 6.9% per year.
The increasing trend of students in international schools in Thailand is due to several factors. One of these is the rise in foreign students, which corresponds with the number of foreign executives working in Thailand, growing at an average of 0.6% annually over the past 10 years.
Additionally, the growing popularity of foreign education curricula, which are constantly updated and modernized compared to Thai curricula, along with parents’ increased investment potential in education, contributes to this trend. This is reflected in the projected 24% increase in the number of people with assets over $1 million in Thailand between 2023-2028.
In 2024, the overall number of schools decreased by 0.5% from the previous year, reaching 33,098 schools. Compared to the 2012 academic year, this represents a 6.6% contraction or about 2,355 schools.
Due to the continued decline in the overall number of students, there has been a gradual closure of schools between the 2012-2024 academic years. Government schools have an average decline rate of 0.6% per year, and private schools with Thai curricula have also been declining at an average of 0.7% per year.
In contrast, the number of international schools has grown by an average of 5.0% per year, opposite to other types of schools. This reflects the trend of shifting school businesses towards foreign education curricula.
The trend of international school businesses shows that competition is expanding more into areas outside Bangkok. Between 2012-2024, the average annual growth rate of students and international schools in other regions was 4.3% and 6.3% higher than in Bangkok, respectively.
Increased competition in the international school business and limited space in Bangkok have led to the exploration of new markets in major cities such as Chiang Mai, Rayong, and Phuket in recent years.
The economies of 21 major cities have grown at a higher rate than Bangkok. In 2022, the GDP per capita growth rate of these 21 major cities was 2% higher than Bangkok, making markets outside Bangkok more attractive.
This trend shows opportunities for expanding international school businesses to areas outside Bangkok, especially in the central and eastern regions. These are likely to be potential markets because they have the second-highest number of households with incomes over 100,000 baht ($2,960) per month, after Bangkok and its vicinity.
However, since the number of target households in each region is less than in Bangkok, operators may need to adjust tuition fees to match the different parental incomes in each area.
It is expected that in 2024, the market value of Thai international schools will grow by about 13% from 2023, reaching 87 billion baht ($2.5 Billion). This growth is driven by increasing popularity in international curricula and expansion into new markets, resulting in a high 10.2% expansion in the number of students from the previous year. It is also supported by an average 3.8% increase in tuition fees from the 2023 academic year.
The risks for international school businesses include the increasing tuition fees, which may lead parents to consider sending their children to study abroad instead, as the gap between tuition fees is narrowing.
In the 2024 academic year, the average annual tuition fee for international schools in Thailand is 764,484 baht ($22,655), while the average annual tuition fee for boarding schools in New Zealand is about 1,150,208 baht ($34,085).
Moreover, international schools may face challenges from competition with private Thai curriculum schools that are improving quality and have lower costs. Parents may decide to switch to private Thai curriculum schools that offer English language programs and teach multiple languages such as Thai, English, and Chinese, challenging the language strengths of international schools.
Additionally, technological advancements have made homeschooling easier. Since homeschooling costs are lower than attending international schools, this could affect the number of students in international schools. The cost of taking the GED (U.S. high school equivalency) exam along with 100 hours of one-on-one tutoring is approximately 160,800 baht ($4,765).
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