Thaksin Shinawatra is on the news. More news about Thaksin Shinawatra. Ex-convict-cum-ex-premier Thaksin, who is still on parole, is back on the news daily and many wonder what is going on.
Take two opposing reactions from two caretaker junta-appointed senators. Senator Somchai Sawaengkarn earlier this week warned (or some may say he made a threat) that both PM Srettha Thavisin and Thaksin will be in legal trouble if the latter continues to behave as if he is the “shadow prime minister.”
When veteran Dutch journalist Erik van Zwam flew in from Holland to Bangkok late last month and interviewed people, including me, for Dutch’s Trouw newspaper, about Thaksin and Srettha, one of the obvious questions was who exactly is the real Prime Minister running Thailand today?
Not unlike Iran and in a strange way. There are three tracks of powers running Thailand at present. First is PM Srettha, who is trying his best to not appear as a mere puppet of Pheu Thai Party de facto lifetime leader Thaksin. (I don’t see Srettha as a mere “yes man” of Thaksin, or Thaksin’s obedient puppet, BTW. I think he has his own ambitions, agency, self-esteem, and his relationship with the ruling Pheu Thai Party and Thaksin is a delicate dance.)
Then, on the second track, you have the man on parole, Thaksin, who is too bored to be confining himself to staying at his Mansion of the Shining Moon, looking after his grandchildren. On the third track there is the deep state, run by the established royalist elites, a big chunk of the bureaucracy and the military. They do not necessarily represent anyone but themselves, although they always say they represent the state, religion (reads state-sanctioned form of Buddhism) and the monarchy.
Fast forward to the end of May and the announcement by the Office of the Attorney General that come June 18, they will indict Thaksin for defaming the monarchy in an interview he gave to a foreign press back in 2015 in Seoul.
Hours after, I was contacted by a journalist from Singapore, working for Chinese-language Lianhe Zaobao newspaper, asking me what kind of impact it will have on Thai society, given that Srettha is also facing the music as the Constitutional Court will rule whether the PM should be removed from office for appointing Pichit Chuenban, (former Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra’s lawyer) as a PM Office Minister despite the fact that he was charged in the past for bribing a judge.
One of the questions I was asked was:
“Who is behind these actions against the two top figures of Pheu Thai and what is likely their goal? Is this some sort of a coup in disguise by the military/conservatives?” I told the paper, which is owned by Singapore Press Holdings, that some Thais believe it is a concerted effort to undermine the Pheu Thai government by the conservative elites (the deep state) who can pull the strings from behind, but that there is no proof.
Thaksin/Srettha will have to yield more to appease them and the goal could be to have more bargaining chips so the Pheu Thai government will have to make more concessions to the conservative elites – and behave. Some may think it is a non-military coup in the making – a so-called judicial coup.
Then I was asked what kind of impact will it have on Thai politics and the society? I replied: More uncertainties and instability, unfortunately for Thailand.
BTW, as long say the deep state is still unable to come up with a viable alternative to run the country and the economy than that of kicking Pheu Thai (Srettha/Thaksin) out only to see a more threatening party, Move Forward Party, in power, they would think twice, if not thrice, before going for the kill.