To say that Thailand is entering treacherous waters is an understatement. Depending on how the Paetongtarn Shinawatra government and people handle the situation in the coming days and weeks, Thailand could see its relationship with its neighbour, Cambodia, regressing by decades, or could face a military coup – or both.
Ultranationalists and anti-government protest leaders announced earlier this week that their major protest, which is expected to be protracted, starts on June 28 onwards.
The Thai Prime Minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is now a sitting duck PM after the controversial leaked audio clip of her conversation with the former Cambodian PM and Senate President and the withdrawal of the Bhumjai Thai Party, the second biggest government party, from the coalition.
As of today, June 22, the PM is adamant that she will neither resign nor dissolve the House and is working hard to bring in defecting MPs from some opposition party to shore up the ailing administration.
It’s understandable why many went ballistic upon hearing the 17-minute clip because the Thai PM spoke more like a little girl, almost begging “uncle” Hun Sen to help more because ultranationalist Thais and anti-Thaksinites are telling her to become PM in Cambodia instead. Paetoongtarn almost committed a huge blunder by saying the “popular” Second Army Region Commander Lt Gen Boonsin Padklang was on the “opposite side” of us, (Paetong and Hun Sen). Paetongtarn’s public expression of contrition was clearly not accepted by ultranationalist conservatives and they now want her out, or a military coup to oust her, and a tougher stance against Cambodia on the border disputes and economic front.
In that damning leaked audio clip that shook the PM and the Pheu Thai government more than an 8-Richter earthquake could, Hun Sen clearly stated that if Thailand reopens its checkpoints as usual, Cambodia is ready to follow through and adjust within 5 hours.
Patriotic Thais who still possess sound reasoning and common sense should demand that the Thai government reopen all the borders as normal to see if Hun Sen will keep his word because both nations stand to lose more than they will gain by escalating the tit-for-tat border rows.
Last night, the 2nd Army Area closed the Sai Taku border trade checkpoint in Buriram’s Ban Kruat district, “for public safety.”
The closure was signed by Lt Gen Boonsin.
This morning, June 22, Khmer Times reports that Cambodian PM Hun Manet has announced the decision to “permanently close two border checkpoints in Oddar Meanchey province in response to, what he described as, the Thai army’s repeated unilateral decisions to shut down access points without prior consultation or coordination with Cambodia.”
This was followed just hours after by Boonsin announcing that he will close two more borders soon. It seems the PM has little or no control now over the army along the Thai-Cambodia border, and a Chinese Xinhua news correspondent, Lin Hao, noted on X following the news item from Khaosod English that “The Cambodian measure was announced by the [Cambodian] PM. The Thai measure was announced by a frontline army commander.”
The adjustments and closures of checkpoints by both parties have almost no benefit, are unnecessary and detrimental to both countries’ economy and diplomatic relations.
Innocent traders and farmers on both sides are now affected with the Thai side, for example, unable to move 30 tonnes of fruits into Cambodia, according to the news report yesterday, while the Thai side tightened the export of Cambodian tapioca into Thailand and casinos on the Cambodian side of the border are also being affected. Overall, it only worsens the situation between the two countries by day and puts Thailand at risk of extra-constitutional powers interfering in the end.
I understand that the current “lame-duck” government may no longer be able to control the border military, particularly, but we must try to preserve the democratic system and help defuse the escalating Thai-Cambodian conflict and the risk of another military coup in Thailand.
With this big picture in mind, Thais who may hate Paetongtarn to the guts or regard her as a traitor should step back and reflect, and look at the overall picture of possible scenarios, and help defuse both bombs first.
As for the childish bickering about who started the Thai-Cambodia border conflicts first, as Hun Sen said in the clip (claiming Thailand started it), I believe it’s pointless to argue about who began it and where the true genesis lies. What we can do and should do now is to demand and try to reduce the conditions for deeper conflicts, otherwise, it will play right into the hands of pro-coup demonstrators who favour extra-constitutional means of solving a political crisis.
At this crucial time, there are more important matters to take into consideration than whether PM Paetongtarn survives or not and that is to ensure that the democratic system is intact and that we don’t unnecessarily deepen the Thai-Cambodia conflict.
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