Election Projections in Italy Point to Hung Parliament

Italian former premier and leader of Forza Italia (Go Italy) party Silvio Berlusconi waves at a polling station Sunday in Milan, Italy. Photo: Antonio Calanni / Associated Press

ROME — Election projections in Italy early Monday showed a center-right coalition that includes an anti-migrant party edging past the populist 5-Star Movement, but no single bloc or party with the support to win a majority in Parliament.

If confirmed by official results, the outcome could set the stage for weeks of political haggling to forge a new government

An RAI State TV projection from Sunday’s election showed the center-right bloc in front with 35.5 percent and the center-left, which includes the Democratic Party leading the current government, lagging at 23 percent.

The anti-establishment 5-Star Movement had 32.5 percent.


Another projection that looked only at how parties fared had the 5-Star Movement snagging 31.8 percent of the vote, but far from the threshold it needed to form a government.

The anti-immigrant, euroskeptic League of Matteo Salvini had 15.9 percent of the vote and its main center-right partner, former Premier Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, came in at 14.2 percent. The Democratic Party had just 19.6 percent.

“Despite a stronger than expected performance, the M5S (Five-Stars) are still far away from securing an absolute majority,” Wolfango Piccoli, a London-based analyst with Teneo Intelligence, wrote.

Piccoli noted that Berlusconi and Salvini had forged a “gentleman’s agreement” stating that if their bloc secured a majority of the vote, whichever of their parties received more support could pick Italy’s next premier.

Berlusconi cannot hold public office now due to a tax fraud conviction and tapped European Parliament President Antonio Tajani as his choice for premier. Salvini wants the job for himself.

Like Piccoli, other analysts said the election appeared to have dealt Italy a hung Parliament – and weeks or even months of political negotiations to line up a governing coalition of rival forces appeared likely.

“Ungovernable Italy” was how Italian daily newspaper La Stampa headlined its election summary.

Political analyst Lorenzo Codogno of London-based LC Macro Advisors commented: “Financial markets are likely to take these figures negatively.” He added that a hung Parliament would make it “extremely difficult for a narrow mainstream coalition to have the numbers to govern.”

How the seats ultimately are sorted out could determine if Italy is swept up in the euroskeptic and far-right sentiment that has emerged in much of Europe.

The campaigning in Italy was marked by neo-fascist rhetoric and anti-migrant violence that culminated in a shooting spree last month that targeted African migrants and injured six.

The 5-Star Movement in principle opposes allying with other parties in government and wants to rule alone, if it wins its first premiership. But the 5-Stars’ candidate for premier, 31-year-old Luigi Di Maio, has shown some openness to potential partners.

One of his chief aides, Alessandro Di Battista, in exultant remarks to supporters early Monday, indicated they were open to talking to potential government partners.

With Salvini gunning for the premiership himself, some pro-European analysts had envisioned a possible “nightmare scenario” of an extremist alliance among the 5-Stars, the League and the right-wing Brothers of Italy.


Steve Bannon, right-wing populist architect of Donald Trump’s White House campaign, was in Rome this weekend, cheering on the populists.

“I think if they create a coalition among all the populists it would be fantastic, it would terrify Brussels and pierce it in its heart,” Bannon was quoted as saying in Sunday’s Corriere della Sera newspaper.

Story: Frances D’Emilio, Coleen Barry