The stature of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin was further undermined this week by the “rumor” of an imminent Cabinet reshuffle next week spreading from his own Pheu Thai Party sources, only to see Srettha denying yesterday that a reshuffle will take place in the coming days.
The reshuffle rumor was very detailed and widely reported by the local media. It includes the removal of Defense Minister Suthin Klangsaeng, to be replaced by Srettha himself, and cutting short Cholnan Srikaew’s tenure as Public Health Minister. Both are very senior Pheu Thai Party figures with Cholnan, himself a former party leader.
Despite Srettha denial on Saturday, Defense Minister Suthin told the media he is preparing himself for such a possibility, adding that Cabinet reshuffle is a frequent occurrence in Thai politics.
To make the matter worse, some reporters even asked ex-convict-cum-ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra yesterday about the reshuffle rumor, to which Thaksin, to his credit, declines to comment.
What is happening then?
We know that in a way Srettha, formerly a real estate tycoon, is a party outsider, only brought in not long before the May 2023 General Elections as the most palatable PM candidate from the Pheu Thai Party in hope of appeasing the conservative elites. Srettha has no history of being critical of the monarchy and appears non-threatening to the conservative elites as the party vows not to touch the controversial lese majeste law or introduce any significant reform of the military.
The reshuffle rumor could thus be read at least three ways.
First, it is just a rumor spread by some daydreaming Pheu Thai sources. Second, it is a power struggle within the Pheu Thai Party with some spreading false reshuffle plans in order to see how Srettha would react. This is understandable given that Pheu Thai is a large party with factions. Third, someone else more powerful than Srettha is intentionally using a Pheu Thai source to float the reshuffle idea publicly in a clear attempt to undermine Srettha’s stature – part of the process of eventually replace him with Thaksin’s daughter, Pheu Thai Party leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
How long will Srettha survive his own party as PM depends chiefly on whether he can prove himself to be an effective PM. Thaksin, the real master of the ruling Pheu Thai Party, has recently told party cadres during its annual general meeting via video conference that his daughter can become an even better leader than him due to the DNAs from him and his ex-wife. (While this writer is not convinced, that is not the topic of this column.)
Interestingly enough, Srettha did not attend the AGM at the party headquarters on that day. It should be taken as a clear sign that Srettha has limited time in his hands, especially if he does not quickly deliver on the economic front.
The controversial 10,000 baht digital wallet handouts scheme will only be rolled out in the last quarter of this year and Srettha himself admits the positive impact will only be noticeable in the first quarter of next year. For Thai politics, that is a long time from now and if the scheme failed to noticeably have a positive impact on the Thai economy, his political survival may be severely at risk.
Being a major real estate tycoon means Srettha may not enjoy being a puppet of anyone. He seems to be enjoying his seven months as a globe-trotting PM and likely would not mind completing his four-year term. Srettha even recently vows to lead the party to victory in the next general elections although no one is talking about the next general elections at this point.
Some in the party, and above the Pheu Thai Party, may be interested in talking about who is the next PM, particularly if Srettha fails to deliver tangible results in the coming months. Already, tackling PM2.5 particles in Chiang Mai, the North, and Bangkok, has been a failure for PM Srettha so far as Chiang Mai became of the most air-polluted major city in the world on many days over the past month.
