In the end, the Thai Prime Minister who vowed to crackdown on call centre scammers in Cambodia became the biggest Thai scam victim when the Constitutional Court ruled on Friday that PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra violated the constitution by placing her own interests above Thai national interests, during the leaked phone conversation between the PM and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen.
This is perhaps the first time in recorded Thai history that a regime change in Thailand was brought about by an interaction between Thai and Cambodian leaders. For centuries, it used to be the other way around – not that Thais should be proud of that.
You can assign the blame to Hun Sen’s shrewd scamming skills, or Paetongtarn’s inexperience and naivety, or the Thai Constitutional Court’s overreaching exercise of power, its inability to grasp the bigger picture, which ‘inadvertently’ brought about repeated instability and undermined not just Thai politics but the Thai economy and society in general.
The repercussions are: more Thais will have zero trust in Cambodian leaders, particularly the Hun family (and let’s hope it doesn’t percolate into a general distrust of all Cambodians – which is unfair and unjustified).
As for the Constitutional Court, I think we need to make it accountable to the people and subject to scrutiny – currently that’s really not the case. Also, whether Paetongtarn Shinawatra was right or wrong, we can interpret it differently and debate about it, but the final judgement should be made by voters across the country, not by just nine people at the Constitutional Court.
As for former PM Paetongtarn, she failed to live up to her father’s DNA, and got scammed by Hun Sen, and some Thais say she should blame herself for not being witty or sufficiently shrewd.
Now, moving on to my observations on the selection of a new Prime Minister:
Politics can’t always follow one’s ideals 100 percent because of various external factors, whether it’s the power of the deep state, the military, other political parties, and a diverse public opinion. This sometimes means having to choose the lesser of two evils.
If the People’s Party chooses Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnveerakul as PM, it would likely be political suicide for them. Bhumjaithai Party’s staunchly conservative and right-wing stance on issues like the controversial and anachronistic royal defamation law, monarchy reform, and the military, not to mention the ongoing judicial case of alleged rigging of senatorial elections, would cause the People’s Party to lose a significant number of their supporters who hold strong views on these matters.
If, in the end, the People’s Party is unsatisfied with both Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai, they might announce that they won’t vote for either party and call for a dissolution of parliament (though there is debate on whether a caretaker prime minister has the authority to do so).
in reality, this situation seems like negotiations may continue right up until the day of the vote, as every party wants the best possible deal for itself. It’s similar to a heated auction for important antiques, fine art, or luxury watches that only ends when the gavel hits the table… but Thai society is not a commodity to be auctioned off.
All parties, especially Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai, and the People’s Party, should consider the interests of Thai society as a whole. The economy is already so fragile, and they should not unnecessarily worsen the crisis. Do not just think about your own and your party’s interests. The supporters and fans of various major political parties too; don’t just think in terms of political colours—be they red, orange, blue, yellow, or any other. Please consider our society’s future and well-being, because it has been hurt more than enough.
P.S. Yesterday, a major Chinese-language newspaper in Singapore interviewed me about who the new PM will be, so I have included it below as an appendix for you to read.
A major Chinese-language media outlet in Singapore, Lianhe Zaobao, is doing a follow-up analytical article regarding the removal of Paetongtarn Shinawatra as prime minister. They have asked me yesterday for “valuable insights on this matter.”
The Singapore media outlet stated that the latest development is that Mr Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party, has announced he has the support needed to form a new coalition government and is ready to be the next prime minister of Thailand.
Here are the questions and answers:
Do you think Anutin will likely form a new government and eventually be elected as Thailand’s 32nd Prime Minister? Any other possible scenarios?
Anutin appears to be in the lead for now, but it is still too close to call. The vote is scheduled for 3rd September, and that’s an eternity in Thai politics. There will be a lot of horse-trading and lobbying over the next two or three days.
The other scenario is the ruling Pheu Thai Party’s last PM candidate, Chaikasem Nitisiri, a former attorney general, becoming the next PM.
Anutin claimed that the Bhumjaithai Party has secured sufficient support, including from the opposition People’s Party, the largest party in the House of Representatives. But these two parties have a different stand on many issues, especially regarding the amendment of the 2017 constitution.
That is correct, and critics point out that Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Party is a hard-right, ultra-royalist, conservative party that is not only against amending the controversial royal defamation laws but is also pro-military. As for the charter rewrite, however, the Bhumjaithai Party is already willing to compromise and accept the conditions of the main opposition People’s Party.
Do you think they can really work together to form the new government?
It is possible, but it is too early to make such predictions.
How about the Pheu Thai Party? Is it possible for Pheu Thai to continue to lead the coalition government?
This is the other possible scenario. Former PM Thaksin Shinawatra is known to have a cordial relationship with Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, the founder of what eventually became the main opposition People’s Party, and Thanathorn still wields a lot of influence over the People’s Party.
Any other comments you would like to add?
Just that it’s not over until it’s over. It’s a bit like an auction; you have to wait until the final stretch and the sound of the gavel.
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