JERUSALEM (AP) — A year after Hamas’ fateful attack on southern Israel, the Middle East is embroiled in a war that shows no signs of ending and seems to be getting worse.

Israel’s retaliatory offensive was initially centered on the Gaza Strip. But the focus has shifted in recent weeks to Lebanon, where airstrikes have given way to a fast-expanding ground incursion against Hezbollah militants who have fired rockets into Israel since the Gaza war began.

Israelis were holding vigils and somber ceremonies on Monday to mark a year since the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack, the deadliest in the country’s history, which sparked the war in Gaza and scarred Israelis indelibly.

The surprise cross-border attack, which caught Israel unprepared on a major Jewish holiday, shattered Israelis’ sense of security and shook their faith in their leaders and their military.

Its aftershocks still ripple one year later. The war in Gaza rages on and Israel is fighting a new war against Hezbollah, which began attacking Israel on Oct. 8. There is also an escalating conflict with Iran — which backs both Hamas and Hezbollah militant groups — that threatens to drag the region into a far more dangerous conflagration.

In Gaza, which is still buckling under the weight of the ongoing war, no formal commemorative event is planned. The massive destruction and displacement are a constant reminder of the retaliatory Israeli assault on the territory, which has no end in sight.

Israelis were flocking to ceremonies, cemeteries and memorial sites around the country, remembering the hundreds of victims, the dozens of hostages still in captivity and the soldiers wounded or killed trying to save them.

At 6:29 a.m. — the exact minute Hamas launched its attack — the families of those killed at the Nova music festival, joined by Israeli President Isaac Herzog, gathered at the site where almost 400 revelers were gunned down and from where many others were taken hostage.

After briefly playing the same trance music that was blared during the festival, hundreds of family members and friends of the victims stood for a moment of silence. One woman’s piercing wail broke the silence as booms echoed from the fighting in Gaza, just a few kilometers away.

“When we are here, we are near our loved ones. This is the time they danced and fled,” said Sigal Bar-On, whose niece, Yuval Bar-On, 25, and her fiancé Moshe Shuva, 34, were supposed to get married in December 2023.

At 6:31 a.m., four projectiles were launched from Gaza toward the very Israeli communities that came under fierce assault last year, the Israeli military said. The ceremony was not disrupted.

Marking the moment Hamas’ attack began a year ago, the families of hostages still held in Gaza — about 100, a third of whom are said to be dead — gathered near Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Jerusalem residence and stood during a two-minute siren, replicating a custom from the the most solemn dates on the Israeli calendar, Holocaust Remembrance and Memorial Day.

“We are here to remind (the hostages) that we haven’t forgotten them,” said Shiri Albag, whose daughter Liri is among the captives. Her message to Netanyahu: “We wont let you rest until all of them are back, every last one of them,” she told the crowd, which hoisted posters bearing the faces of the hostages.

A group representing the families of hostages announced that another captive was dead. Idan Shtivi, 28, was snatched from the Nova music festival and was believed to be alive. Israeli media reported he was killed during the attack and his body was taken into Gaza.

The flags at the Israeli Knesset were lowered to half-staff and an official state ceremony focusing on acts of bravery and hope is set to be aired on Monday evening. The ceremony was prerecorded without an audience — apparently to avoid potential disruptions — in the southern city of Ofakim, where over two dozen Israelis were killed.

But anger at the government’s failure to prevent the attack and enduring frustration that it has not returned the remaining hostages prompted the families of those killed and taken captive to hold a separate event in Tel Aviv.

That event had been set to draw tens of thousands of people but was scaled back drastically over prohibitions on large gatherings due to the threat of missile attacks from Iran and Hezbollah.

A region is torn apart by unthinkable death and destruction

The Oct. 7 attack was the bloodiest in Israel’s history. Young partygoers were gunned down. Cowering families were killed in their homes. In all, about 1,200 people died and 250 were taken hostage. Some Israelis were raped or sexually assaulted.

The ensuing war in Gaza has been the longest, deadliest and most destructive in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Gaza health authorities say nearly 42,000 people have been killed — roughly 2% of the territory’s entire population. Although they do not give a breakdown between civilians and combatants, more than half of the dead have been women and children. Numerous top Hamas officials have been killed.

The damage and displacement in Gaza have reached unseen levels. Hospitals, schools and mosques – once thought to be insulated from violence – have repeatedly been targeted by Israel or caught in the crossfire. Scores of journalists and health workers have been killed, many of them while working in the line of duty.

Months of simmering tensions along Israel’s northern border recently boiled over into war.

A growing list of Hezbollah officials – including the group’s longtime leader — have been killed by Israel. Hundreds of Hezbollah members were killed or maimed in explosions of pagers and walkie-talkies. Israel’s ground offensive is its first in Lebanon since a monthlong war in 2006.

Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has displaced tens of thousands of Israelis and over 1 million Lebanese. Israel promises to keep pounding Hezbollah until its residents can return to homes near the Lebanese border; Hezbollah says it will keep firing rockets into Israel until there is a cease-fire in Gaza.

The leaders of Hamas and Israel appear in no rush for a cease-fire

When the war erupted, the days appeared to be numbered for both Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

Netanyahu’s public standing plummeted as he faced calls to step aside. Sinwar fled into Gaza’s labyrinth of tunnels as Israel declared him a “dead man walking.”

Yet both men — facing war crimes charges in international courts — remain firmly in charge, and neither appears to be in a rush for a cease-fire.

The end of the war could mean the end of Netanyahu’s government, which is dominated by hard-line partners opposed to a cease-fire. That would mean early elections, potentially pushing him into the opposition while he stands trial on corruption charges. Also looming is the prospect of an unflattering official inquiry into his government’s failures before and during the Oct. 7 attack.

Fearing that, his coalition has hung together even through mass protests and repeated disagreements with top security officials pushing for a deal to bring home the hostages. After a brief period of post-Oct. 7 national unity, Israel has returned to its divided self — torn between Netanyahu’s religious, conservative, nationalist right-wing base and his more secular, middle-class opposition.

Sinwar, believed to be hiding in Gaza’s tunnels, continues to drive a hard bargain in hopes of declaring some sort of victory. His demands for a full Israeli withdrawal, a lasting cease-fire and the release of a large number of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for scores of hostages have been rejected by Israel — even as much of the international community has embraced them.

With cease-fire efforts deadlocked and Netanyahu’s far-right coalition firmly intact, the war could go on for some time. An estimated 1.9 million Palestinians remain displaced in Gaza while an estimated 68 hostages remain captive in Gaza, in addition to the bodies of 33 others held by Hamas.

Bitter enemies experience the limits of force

Early in the war, Netanyahu promised to destroy Hamas’ military and governing abilities.

Those goals have been achieved in many ways. Israel says it has dismantled Hamas’ military structure, and its rocket barrages have been diminished to a trickle. With Israeli troops stationed indefinitely in Gaza, it is difficult to see how the group could return to governing the territory or pose a serious threat.

But in other ways, total victory is impossible. Despite Israel’s overwhelming force, Hamas units have repeatedly regrouped to stage guerrilla-style ambushes from areas where Israel has withdrawn.

Across the Middle East, bitter enemies are witnessing the limits of force and deterrence.

Israel’s deepening invasion of Lebanon and repeated strikes on Hezbollah have failed to halt the rockets and missiles. Missile and drone attacks by Iran and its allies have only deepened Israel’s resolve. Israel is vowing to strike Iran hard after its latest missile barrage, raising the likelihood of a broader, regionwide war.

Without diplomatic solutions, the fighting is likely to persist.

Israel and Gaza will never be the same

Israel is still deeply traumatized as people try to come to terms with the worst day in its history.

The Oct. 7 killings and kidnappings had an outsized impact on a tiny country founded in the aftermath of the Holocaust. Israelis’ sense of security was shattered, and their faith in the military was tested like never before.

Photos of Israeli hostages are everywhere, and mass demonstrations are held each week calling on the government to reach a deal to bring them home. The prospect of ongoing war looms over families and workplaces as reserve soldiers brace for repeated tours of duty.

The trauma is far more acute in Gaza – where an estimated 90% of the population remains displaced, many of them living in squalid tent camps.

The scenes have drawn comparisons to what the Palestinian call the Nakba, or catastrophe – the mass displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians during the war surrounding Israel’s creation in 1948. The Palestinians now find themselves looking at a tragedy of even greater scale.

It remains unclear when displaced Palestinians in Gaza will be able to return home and whether there will be anything to return to. The territory has suffered immense destruction and is littered with unexploded bombs. Children are missing a second consecutive school year, virtually every family has lost a relative in the fighting and basic needs like food and health care are lacking.

After a hellish year, the Palestinians of Gaza have no clear path forward, and it could take generations to recover.

Old formulas for pursuing Mideast peace no longer work

The international community’s response to this bloodiest of wars has been tepid and ineffective.

Repeated cease-fire calls have been ignored, and a U.S.-led plan to reinstate the Palestinian Authority in postwar Gaza has been rejected by Israel. It remains unclear who will run the territory in the future or who will pay for a cleanup and reconstruction effort that could take decades.

One thing that seems clear is that old formulas will no longer work. The international community’s preferred peace formula – the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel – seems hopelessly unrealistic.

Israel’s hard-line government opposes Palestinian statehood, says its troops will remain in Gaza for years to come and has further cemented its undeclared annexation of the West Bank. The internationally recognized Palestinian Authority has been pushed to the brink of irrelevance.

For decades, the United States has acted as the key mediator and power broker in the region – calling for a two-state solution but showing little political will to promote that vision. Instead, it has often turned to conflict management, preventing any side from doing anything too extreme to destabilize the region.

This approach went up in smoke on Oct. 7. Since then, the U.S. has responded with a muddled message of criticizing Israel’s wartime tactics as too harsh while arming the Israeli military and protecting Israel against diplomatic criticism. The result: The Biden administration has managed to antagonize both Israel and the Arab world while cease-fire efforts repeatedly sputter.

This approach has also alienated the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, complicating Kamala Harris’ presidential aspirations. The warring sides appear to have given up on the Biden administration and are waiting for the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election before deciding their next moves.

Whoever wins the race will almost certainly have to find a new formula and recalibrate decades of American policy if they want to end the war.

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