BANGKOK — Political tensions between the ruling Pheu Thai Party and coalition partner Bhumjaithai Party have intensified, potentially leading to a cabinet reshuffle this June.
The controversy erupted when former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra suggested replacing the Interior Minister from Bhumjaithai with a Pheu Thai nominee, citing insufficient performance in driving key policies forward.
Despite the government successfully passing the 2026 budget bill with a comfortable 322-158 vote on Saturday, May 31, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra addressed speculation about the cabinet changes during a post-vote interview.
“Today everything remains the same, but anything can happen,” Paetongtarn said when pressed about potential reshuffles. “Things we don’t expect or think about often turn out that way every time, and this time is no different.”
When asked about the Interior Ministry’s performance over the past two years, the PM deflected, saying those were Thaksin’s views and that she could always coordinate with Deputy PM Anutin Charnvirakul on various matters.
Pressed on whether she had asked Thaksin about his public comments that led to perceptions the party was being controlled, Paetongtarn only responded with “Hmm, yes.” However, she insisted she wasn’t being dominated, describing the relationship as “Khun Thaksin providing advice, and Khun Thaksin’s daughter considering it.”
Shifting Power Dynamics
The relationship between Pheu Thai (141 MPs) and Bhumjaithai (69 MPs) has been characterized as a “slap-kiss” Thai drama dynamic, with periodic conflicts over policies including cannabis legalization, entertainment complexes, and constitutional amendments.
Despite having fewer seats, Bhumjaithai has maintained significant bargaining power since the 2023 coalition formation, especially after Pheu Thai split from the Move Forward Party, which had won the most seats with 151.
However, the political landscape is shifting in Pheu Thai’s favor. Analysis suggests that removing Bhumjaithai’s 69 MPs wouldn’t collapse the government, as 493 MPs would remain from the required 322-seat majority.
Senate Investigation Impact
The ongoing Senate vote-buying investigation by the Department of Special Investigation and Election Commission is expected to significantly weaken Bhumjaithai’s position. With 138 senators facing charges plus 2 reserves, the process could eliminate the “blue senators” allied with Bhumjaithai.
“The evidence-backed legal proceedings will cause the blue party’s bargaining power in the lower house to vanish,” noted political analysis in Khao Sod newspaper.
Strategic Considerations
This puts Pheu Thai in an advantageous position for crucial cabinet negotiations, while Bhumjaithai faces limited options beyond negotiating for suitable ministries if forced to surrender the Interior portfolio.
Pheu Thai seeks control of the Interior Ministry to implement anti-drug campaigns and inject economic stimulus into villages and communities as key achievements for the government’s final two years.
When asked whether the government could survive a full term without Bhumjaithai, Deputy PM Anutin responded: “That day probably won’t come.”
The cabinet reshuffle discussions are expected to unfold with Pheu Thai holding stronger cards than at any point since the coalition’s formation.
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