BANGKOK — The Thai economy is expected to grow 2.7% in 2024, according to increased government estimates; tourism and exports lead the rise, without the digital wallet scheme.
Paopoom Rojanasakul, Deputy Minister of Finance, announced on Friday that the estimated growth of the Thai economy in 2024 is expected to be 2.7 percent, an increase from the previous estimate of 2.4 percent, due to tourism, exports, and private consumption.
He emphasized that the GDP estimate does not include the expected impact of the Digital Wallet project.
The Finance Ministry’s preliminary estimate on April 10, 2024, suggested that the Digital Wallet project alone could boost economic growth by 1.2-1.8 percent over the project’s duration, depending on the source of funds, project conditions, the number of participants, and spending behavior of beneficiaries.
General inflation is expected to be 0.6 percent per year, he said. The service balance surplus is driven by the increase in the number of foreign tourists, with the current account balance surplus expected to be 11.0 billion USD or 2.4 percent of GDP in 2024.
“Visa-Free Policy’ Is Showing Results
The economy will be supported by the tourism sector, with both the number of tourists and spending per tourist exceeding previous estimates. The number of foreign tourists is expected to reach 36 million in 2024, an annual increase of 27.9 percent compared to the previous estimate of 35.7 million.
The average spend per tourist is expected to be 47,000 baht per trip, up from the previous estimate of 44,600 baht. This increase is partly due to the visa waiver for 93 countries and the higher proportion of tourists from high-spending countries. Overall, the tourism sector is expected to generate over 1.69 trillion baht in 2024, an increase of 37.4 percent.
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin posted a message on July 27 that the government’s Visa Exemption policy is already showing results, with tourist numbers from Taiwan and India entering Thailand reaching record highs compared to post-COVID figures, and trending to surpass 2019 levels as well.
“Our measure to exempt visas for Indian and Taiwanese tourists, extending their stay to 60 days since late 2023 and continuing the project until November 11, 2024, along with cooperation from all sectors, is contributing to the continuous recovery of tourism. In just half of 2024, we’ve already increased tourists from a major market like India by more than 30%, and we expect this to reach 2 million people by the end of this year,” the Prime Minister said.
He also mentioned that the government has extended the 60-day stay to 93 more countries, which will increase the number of tourists with high per-capita spending. Meanwhile, the Tourism Authority of Thailand is preparing activities to attract tourists from each country throughout every month.
“I urge the tourism sector to be prepared. Today, Thailand’s big door is open,” the Prime Minister stated.
Figures Don’t Align with People’s Feelings
Exports are showing better-than-expected growth, projected to grow by 2.7 percent, up from the previous estimate of 2.3 percent. Demand from major trading partners, particularly the USA, China, and the Eurozone, has improved. The GDP of the top 15 trading partners is expected to grow by 3.2 percent, up from the previous estimate of 3.1 percent.
Private consumption is expected to grow by 4.5 percent, compared to the previous estimate of 3.5 percent. This is partly due to an 8 percent increase in farmers’ income and a 3.6 percent increase in real VAT, indicating increased spending and money circulation in the economy. This growth is supported by continued fiscal measures and government credit and liquidity measures.
However, Phaopoom admitted that the increased economic forecast figures do not align with the feelings of many citizens, who face high costs of living and economic hardship. This sentiment is reflected through the representatives of the people, both from opposition parties and government parties.
“The expansion of the Thai economy has improved beyond the forecast made this April. However, we must acknowledge that this may contradict the feelings of some people who feel that the economy is still not doing well. This is because the recovery of the Thai economy has a K-shaped characteristic, where economic growth is not evenly distributed. Therefore, the government aims to improve this situation further to help reduce income inequality among the country’s population,” he said.
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