Trump’s Trade Policies Put Pressure on $35B Thai Export Surplus

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Photo Credit: Royal Thai Embassy, Washington, D.C.

BANGKOKThailand’s Ministry of Commerce has launched intensive monitoring of US trade policy changes amid concerns over potential tariff measures, since Donald Trump has started his administration, that could affect its $54.95 billion export market, officials announced Tuesday.

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Trump pledged in his inaugural address on Monday, January 20, that tariffs would be coming and said foreign countries would be paying the trade penalties, even though those taxes are currently paid by domestic importers and often passed along to consumers. Trump later said tariffs would “make us rich as hell.”

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President Donald Trump delivers remarks after being sworn in as the 47th President of the United States during the 60th Presidential Inauguration in the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, Monday, Jan. 20, 2025, as former President Joe Biden looks on. (Shawn Thew/Pool photo via AP)

Thai Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan has directed agencies to assess the impact of US protectionist policies, particularly focusing on 29 product categories where Thailand maintains a significant trade surplus, according to Phunphong Nainapakorn, director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy.

“We are closely watching US measures on increasing import tariffs, not just for Thailand but their global approach including China, Canada, and Mexico,” Naripthaphan said. The US currently represents Thailand’s largest export market, accounting for 18% of total exports.

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Key Thai exports under threat include computers, cell phones, solar panels, air conditioners, and jewelry, as US trade representatives scrutinize Thailand’s growing trade surplus, which reached $35.42 billion in 2024. This places Thailand 12th among countries with trade surpluses with the US.

Pichai Naripthaphan
Thai Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan

The Ministry plans to send a delegation to Washington in February to negotiate tariff exemptions. This comes as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth of 3.3% for 2025, while warning of risks from increasing protectionist measures.

Poj Aramwattananon, Vice Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, suggested that Thailand might need to increase imports of certain US products, such as corn for animal feed, to address trade imbalances. However, he noted that 20-30% of the current deficit stems from US companies manufacturing in Thailand and exporting back to America.

“Several Thai products already face trade barriers,” Aramwattananon explained. “Tuna exports incur a 13% tax, while shrimp faces anti-dumping duties. The impact of any new tariffs will depend on their specific implementation.”

The situation has broader implications for regional trade, as the US closely monitors countries where Chinese companies have relocated manufacturing to avoid tariffs. The World Bank has already revised its global trade growth forecast downward to 3.1%, potentially affecting both Thai and ASEAN economies.

Thailand ranks among the top global holders of trade surplus with the US, with imports from the US valued at $19.52 billion, making America Thailand’s fourth-largest import source. Ministry officials emphasized that any new US trade measures would become clearer following the appointment of the new United States Trade Representative.

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