BANGKOK — Countries around the world are trying to avoid retaliatory tariffs as part of former President Donald Trump’s trade policy stance, and global import and export activity has surged, pushing up Thailand’s trade value in May.
Phunphong Naiyanapakorn, director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) and spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, announced Thailand’s export and import price index for May 2025. Compared to the same period last year, both indices have increased due to higher global demand from trading partners. This is partly due to a rush of exports ahead of possible tariff hikes by the United States as well as a steady increase in imports for production purposes.
However, the Ministry of Commerce warned that several risk factors could impact Thailand’s future price growth, including global economic and trade uncertainties, ongoing geopolitical tensions, climate change, protectionist trade policies, and exchange rate volatility.
Export Price Index
In May 2025, the export price index stood at 111.0, an increase of 0.4% compared to the previous year. Key factors included a recovery in global demand for electronics and computer products as well as continued growth in processed food exports.
- Industrial products rose by 1.6%, including gold (as a safe haven), computers and parts due to rush orders ahead of US tariffs and demand for AI and data centre infrastructure and air conditioning due to rising global temperatures and humidity.
- Agro-industrial products increased by 1.4%, such as tinned fish and processed seafood (long shelf life and food safety), premium and functional pet food (health orientated) and soft drinks (growing health awareness).
- The commodities that declined include: Minerals and fuels, down 15.8%, especially refined and crude oil, due to global oversupply and weakening demand. Agricultural products, down 4.0%, particularly rice (due to high global supply and price competition from India and Vietnam) and cassava products (due to falling demand from key markets such as China).
Import Price Index
The import price index reached 114.1 in May 2025, an increase of 1.4% compared to the previous year. This was largely due to the behaviour of domestic manufacturers importing raw materials and electronic equipment ahead of the full introduction of US tariffs.
Increases were seen across almost all categories:
- Consumer goods, up 8.5%, including household electronics, pharmaceuticals, jewellery and fruit/vegetable products, due to increased domestic demand and tourism growth.
- Raw materials and semi-finished goods, up 4.9%, especially gold (due to a weaker USD and tensions in the Middle East) and electronic components such as printed circuit boards (needed for domestic production). Fertiliser prices also rose due to higher production costs and increasing demand.
- Capital goods, including electrical machinery, computers and related components, rose 4.3% in response to export production needs and global tech trends (AI and data centres). Vehicles and transport equipment also rose by 0.8%, driven by strong demand for auto parts for domestic assembly and export.
- Fuel prices, on the other hand, fell by 14.6%, particularly for crude oil. This is in line with global trends and the expected oversupply, which exceeds global demand.
Outlook for June 2025
The positive factors that are likely to favour further growth in the price index include
- A short-term increase in Thai exports due to front-loading by trading partners ahead of the introduction of reciprocal tariffs.
- Continued growth in processed agricultural products.
- Sustained global demand for technology-related industrial goods.
- Rising production costs, which could drive prices up further.
However, the Ministry also warns of various risk factors:
- Economic slowdowns worldwide and in key trading partners.
- Ongoing geo-political conflicts in several regions.
- Uncertainty about the USA’s trade and customs policy.
- Oversupply of important agricultural goods.
- Increased price competition on the global markets.
Volatility of the baht and possible appreciation of the currency.
US Tariff Negotiations
Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira posted on Facebook on June 27, explaining Thailand’s ongoing negotiations with the US over reciprocal tariffs.
Thailand’s tariff negotiations with the United States have not yet been finalized, with detailed discussions currently underway with the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).
Key points FM Pichai highlighted include:
Complex Negotiations: Multiple US agencies are involved, including the Commerce Department, USTR, and Treasury. Thailand must coordinate through two main agencies – the Fiscal Policy Office and Trade Negotiations Department – to handle negotiations at all levels.
Consultant Fees: Normal US consulting and lobbying rates range from $20,000-$300,000 monthly. Current reciprocal tariff negotiations command higher fees due to their urgency, competition with other countries, and Thailand’s billions of dollars in annual trade at stake.
Transparency: All foreign consulting contracts must be disclosed under US FARA (Foreign Agents Registration Act) laws on the Justice Department website.
High Stakes: Pichai warned that without proper assistance and strong negotiating tools, Thailand risks losing export markets and harming farmers and businesses. He emphasized that modern international policy requires technical understanding, careful attention, and timely decision-making.
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