Former inmate Thaksin Shinawatra has finally returned home after 17 years today. He was first ousted in the coup in September 2006 and subsequently faced corruption-related charges before being sentenced upon returning to Thailand late last year.
He never spent a full night in a proper prison as he was transported to the Police General Hospital due to a “medical emergency” in the middle of his first night in jail, then granted a partial royal pardon by the King while in hospital. He is now out and back home at Baan Chan Song Lah, or Mansion of the Shining Moon, in Bangkok’s Bang Phlat District on parole early this morning.
That “PM” Srettha Thavisin has to say a few hours after Thaksin returns home that there is only “one PM” in Thailand. This reflects the growing speculations and anxiety over the question as to who is the real boss running the government now – is it Srettha Thavisin or Thaksin Shinawatra?
Srettha insists this morning Thailand is not being run by two prime ministers. Is that the case? And if so, who is the real prime minister of Thailand now? For the record, Deputy PM Phumtham Wechayachai went even further on the same day this morning, saying Srettha is not a puppet.
At any rate, we all know that Thaksin has always been the supreme leader of the Pheu Thai Party. Back in 2011, the Pheu Thai Party’s electoral motto was “Thaksin Thinks, Pheu Thai Acts.” His younger sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, then became PM in August 2011 after an election victory before being ousted by the constitutional court, followed by another military coup in 2014 which unconstitutionally removed the Pheu Thai Party.
Fast forward to 2024, his daughter, Paetongtarn, is now the leader of the ruling Pheu Thai Party – or some would say the Shinawatra Party. So, the question is, if his health permits, what kind of role will Thaksin play as PM Srettha was chosen by the party as a compromised candidate more palatable to the conservative established elites and even anti-Thaksinites.
Will Thaksin, at 74, take a de facto driver seat, be hands on, and start to direct the Pheu-Thai-government’s policies in a very public way through posts on social media, thus making PM Srettha Thavisin look like a marionette? Or will he be content with working quietly behind the scenes as kingmaker, pulling the strings whenever he felt necessary and as the supreme advisor of the government and the Pheu Thai Party?
Unless his health is as truly severe as the doctors claimed, it is impossible to think that Thaksin would retire himself to a quiet non-political life at his Mansion of the Shining Moon as he could have done that long, long time ago (abroad) when he was ousted in the 2006 coup, nearly two decades ago.
Instead, the ex-premier was politically active from Dubai, London, Hong Kong, Singapore or wherever on earth where he happens to be stationed. Nevertheless, it is likely that he will wait and see the public’s reaction in the days and weeks ahead before deciding his next move.
For Srettha, the 62-year-old former real estate tycoon, will have to work even harder and quickly prove to the public and his party that he is in charge and an indispensable asset to the Pheu Thai Party and to Thailand and not just a bench warmer for PM Paetongtarn, or head of an interim PM for another Shinawatra PM to be readied. Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn, who is at the helm of the Pheu Thai Party, could replace Srettha sooner than later if Srettha proves himself to be an ineffective and unpopular PM.
As for the lese majeste charge against Thaksin, it is still in an early stage and in the end, he could still get another royal pardon.
It would be wise for Thaksin, for the Shinawatra Party, sorry, the Pheu Thai Party, to let PM Srettha prove himself in the next six to 12 months at least. Any visible move to override Srettha’s authority would destabilize politics and could backfire on Thaksin, the Pheu Thai Party, and definitely not good news for Thailand.
Puppet or no puppet, Thaksin should wait and let Srettha prove himself as PM.
