Finally, Paetongtarn Shinawatra has been voted by members of parliament as Thailand’s 31st Prime Minister and became the youngest prime minister in Thai history at the age of 37.
Her chief qualification seems to be that she’s a daughter of arguably the most influential (former) politician in Thailand – ex-convict-cum-former-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who is still on parole. This is not to say she has no abilities whatsoever.
For over a year, Paetongtarn has been heading the Pheu Thai Party, (again the position comes from the fact that she’s Thaksin’s daughter) but at least managed to have done a decent job as leader of the ruling Pheu Thai Party and is sufficiently articulate and able to handle the press well, including those from opposition outlets.
All the Pheu Thai MPs and key members, know full well that Paetongtarn is the most direct representative of Thaksin so when you deal with her, it’s like you are dealing with Thaksin who was ousted in the 2006 military coup and more recently barred from holding a political office due to his corruption-related convictions. They also know when Paetongtarn speaks, she will likely be acting as a political medium conveying Thaksin’s wishes.
Not a few Thais will see PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra as essentially a de facto PM Thaksin Shinawatra in disguise, and her administration that of another Thaksin administration. It is not inaccurate to think as such and if you are a Thaksin supporter, all those convictions were “politically motivated” and thus there is nothing wrong with Thaksin running Thailand again through his PM daughter.
Paetongtarn being the daughter of Thaksin is both a blessing and a curse. It’s a blessing because people know she represents Thaksin, and if you are a Thaksin supporter, you will offer her a full and unreserved support. It’s a curse because people believe she represents Thaksin and if you are a Thaksin-hater, she is a living proof that Thaksin is exerting undue influence over Thai politics in a most graphic way again.
Thaksin is like a durian, you either love or loathe him and the middle ground is inhabited by very few Thais. In the end, Thailand’s youngest PM will be judged by how she differs from Thaksin or whether she is a mere political medium for Thaksin to run the new government.
Less than a day before she was voted as Thailand’s 31st Prime Minister, Paetongtarn herself admitted during a press conference that Thaksin has always been advising her. In a way, that should be very helpful to her in handling not just the relatively stagnated economy but also in dealing with senior party members and coalition party leaders.
It’s unclear how effective Paetongtarn will be in dealing with the generals in the armed forces, particularly the army, which illegitimately behaves like a state within a state and had staged two military coups, first to oust her father in 2006, then to oust what was left of the government of her aunt, PM Yingluck Shinawatra, in 2014.
One thing is clear, however, this new or de facto Thaksin administration has mellowed down considerably and will not challenge the monarchy institution despite calls by young voters for a reform of the controversial lese majeste law and the monarchy institution.
The Pheu Thai Party has struck a truce with the established conservative royalist elites who need PTP to keep the main opposition party, now known as People’s Party after the Charter Court dissolved Move Forward Party, at bay. Thus Thaksin and his daughter’s party is now seen as a necessary ally and this enabled their party’s first PM candidate Srettha Thavisin to become PM after last year’s general election in May.
To ordinary folks, it’s less important (or even a non-issue) whether this is actually a Paetongtarn Shinawatra administration or a Thaksin Shinawatra administration, as long as it delivers – particularly on the economic front. Like what China’s paramount leader Deng Xiaoping once said: “It doesn’t matter whether a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.”
Although the current state of Thai democracy is semi-democratic at best due to repeated and frequent interference by the army, the established elites and some in the judiciary, it is imperative that we giver PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra a chance to run the country (even if it’s actually her father running it from his mansion in Bangkok, the Mansion of the Shining Moon) because Thailand needs to try to steer the country through yet another political transition without having the army interfering through a coup again.
As for the role and power of the Constitutional Court, and the widely shared views that the rulings by the court to remove PM Srettha Thavisin from power on Wednesday for having appointed Pichit Chuenban as a PM Office Minister despite Pichit having been charged for attempted bribery of court official in the past and last week’s ruling by the same court to dissolve the main opposition Move Forward Party for pledging to amend the lese majeste law, were nothing short of two judicial coups in a week, it will be matters to be addressed in the medium term.
Thailand needs to deliberate about the role and power of the Constitutional Court but for the meantime, it is hoped that people can put partisan politics aside and allow the new prime minister to try to regain some confidence in the political system which was lost. We should give PM Paetongtarn whatever support we can to at least give the fragile semi-democratic system a chance to survive without yet another military intervention first.
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