Thai PM Battles for Political Survival Amid Internal and External Crisis

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, talks to Commander of the 2nd Army Area Lieutenant General Boonsin Padklang, during a meeting with soldiers at Ubonratchathani province, northeast of Bangkok, June 20, 2025. (KHAOSOD Photo/Pattarayoot Phukpol)

BANGKOK — Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra offered a formal apology to Lieutenant General Boonsin Padklang during her visit to Ubon Ratchathani on Friday, addressing fallout from a leaked conversation with Cambodian leader Hun Sen in which she referred to the army commander as someone from “the opposing side.”

The private conversation, now public, has triggered a major political crisis for her administration.

While the visit to the Thai-Cambodia border base in Ubon Ratchathani province on June 20 appeared to go well and reflected unity between the government and military, maintaining Prime Minister Paetongtarn’s position and keeping the coalition government moving forward remains filled with numerous obstacles, with uncertainty about whether it can continue.

The political fallout has divided supporters and critics along predictable lines.

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Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra performs a traditional wai greeting and states, “I formally apologize,” to Lieutenant General Boonsin Padklang upon her arrival at Wing 21 Air Base, Ubon Ratchathani Province, on June 20, 2025. (KHAOSOD Photo/Pattarayoot Phukpol)

Opposition Demands Resignation

Pheu Thai Party supporters and some academics argue that nothing in the 17-minute leaked audio clip can be used to attack her for personal gain, as she clearly stated she did not want war or casualties and refused Hun Sen’s demands to lift all border checkpoint restrictions, saying she needed to consult with the Defense Ministry first.

However, the People’s Party, opposition leaders and supporters, anti-Thaksin groups, and other academics insist the Prime Minister must resign to take responsibility for the embarrassment of having private conversations with someone she called “uncle,” only to have that same “uncle” release the entire recording.

Coalition Partners Withdraw Support

The leaked clip emerged as the Bhumjaithai Party, the second-largest party in government with 69 MPs, decided to withdraw from the coalition early this week. Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul insisted on refusing to move from the Interior Ministry to another ministry.

In their withdrawal letter released Tuesday evening, they demanded the Prime Minister take responsibility for causing Thailand to lose national honor and dignity.

While other coalition parties including Prachachart, Kla Tham, Chart Thai Pattana, and Democrat parties have voted to remain in government, some members disagree with this decision.

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Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra raises her hands in a traditional Thai greeting gesture as she apologizes to the Thai people for the leaked private conversation with Cambodian leader Hun Sen regarding negotiations to resolve cross-border checkpoint operations between the two countries, at Government House on June 19, 2025. (KHAOSOD Photo/Pattarayoot Phukpol)

United Thai Nation Party Split

Another chaotic situation involves the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party, co-founded by former Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, which is currently split between supporters and opponents of party leader Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, with each faction having 18 MPs.

The UTN Party executive committee held a 2-hour emergency meeting on June 19, resolving to propose changing the Prime Minister from Paetongtarn to Chaikasem Nitisiri, the third-ranked candidate of the Pheu Thai Party.

However, the opposing faction announced the next day that they reject this resolution and continue supporting Paetongtarn as Prime Minister.

Juti Krairiksh, a party-list MP and Deputy Leader of UTN, warned that if the Prime Minister does not step down, UTN members will resign en masse. He emphasized any alteration to the resolution would require a new party meeting, which he believes is unlikely to happen.

Senate Moves for Removal

Meanwhile, many senators, particularly the blue faction close to Bhumjaithai Party, are moving forward. Senate President Mongkol Surasajja submitted petitions to the Constitutional Court and the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) to remove her from office over the leaked audio incident, following demands from the Senate Military Committee.

“The nation’s patience has now ended due to the situation caused by government leaders who lack capability, efficiency, and leadership. The country lacks unity, dignity, and honor,” the Senate Military Committee stated on June 19.

Mongkol is among senators summoned by the Election Commission’s Central Investigation Committee to explain allegations in the Senate election rigging case, known as the “Senate cartel case,” which runs parallel to money laundering investigations by the Department of Special Investigation (DSI).

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Hun Sen posted on June 20, 2025, photos of PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra during her official visit to Phnom Penh in April 2025, stating that she visited the bedrooms of former Thai PMs Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra at his residence.

Hun Sen Continues Pressure

While domestic political pressure mounts, Prime Minister Paetongtarn continues to face pressure from Cambodian leader Hun Sen, who publicly displays his close relationship with the Shinawatra family to compound the ongoing situation.

On Friday, Hun Sen posted photos of PM Paetongtarn during her official visit to Phnom Penh in April, stating that after official duties were completed, he invited her to dine at his home, where she also visited the bedrooms of former Prime Ministers Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra at his residence.

Cabinet Reshuffle Negotiations

Prime Minister Paetongtarn’s navigation through this political storm will likely depend on a cabinet reshuffle that satisfies coalition partners with increased negotiating power. She has cited that Thailand needs a government that intensely protects sovereignty during this critical period. The reshuffle is expected to be completed within the next week or possibly over the weekend.

The government must also ensure military adherence to democratic principles without being swayed by calls for a military coup.

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Meanwhile, officials must find ways to handle Hun Sen’s cross-border political games while hoping no more private conversation recordings emerge to cause further disruption.

Finally, the Thai government may need to involve ASEAN as a mediator to maintain regional peace and prevent escalation.

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