The Thai office of a global bank invited me for lunch earlier this week to discuss Thai political prospects with a group of 20 Thai and foreign institutional investors on their semi-annual macro trip to the region to get a better sense of the state of Thai economy and politics.
Though I am not at liberty to reveal the name of the bank, the six questions submitted by the Thai chief economist (and vice president) shows institutional investors are concerned about stability and predictability of Thai politics, which definitely will have a repercussion of the economy and it is worth having a look.
Here are the six questions sent to me in English and my notes for the answers that I gave them while trying to manage my lunch on Thursday in Bangkok.
- In your view, what are the differences between Prayut’s and Srettha’s administration, given that several coalition partners are unchanged. Might a Pheu Thai-led government be more progressive in economic reforms?
Answer: This is not a military-led government, and the Pheu Thai Party is more business-oriented. Given the current precarious state of the economy, PM Srettha will have to try hard to revive the flagging economy so national security issues are now in the back seat. The military are now content in watching how Srettha will fare while they have their proxy parties in the coalition. I don’t think Srettha wants to unnecessarily break the bank of some very influential big businesses in certain sectors such as energy, however. The government would then be attracting too many powerful enemies.
- How do you assess the stability of the current coalition government? Do you see the possibility of an early election in 2024? What might be the triggers for such an event?
Answer: It’s fairly stable for the meantime. Only a major economic crisis could undermine the current administration next year. Many citizens have faced years of political conflicts and junta’s rules, and they now want to see the government focus on bread and butter issues. There’s a political fatigue and little appetite for political protests while the military junta have failed to deliver over the near decade in power so people also will reject another coup attempt. They want to see what Srettha can achieve, and he will be given time to prove himself.
- Thailand has seen several violent protests by the younger generation during the pandemic. Do you expect any protests in 2024 and what might be the triggers for such events?
Answer: It’s possible, especially if more young Thais are being locked up under the controversial and anachronistic lese majeste law which carries a maximum imprisonment term of 15 years for effectively not just defaming or insulting, but criticizing the monarchy. If some prominent political detainees, particularly prisoners of conscience such as monarchy-reform protest co-leader Arnon Nampa, die in prison, then one can expect a mass protest on the streets of Bangkok.
- Do you expect much progress in constitutional reform by 2025? Why or why not?
Answer: Not really. Progress will be slow. It’s customary for the sitting government to dissolve the House and call for fresh elections once a new charter is in place, so the government is expected to stall in order to buy more time in power.
- The progressive Move Forward Party and its former leader Pita still have charges against them pending at the Constitutional Court. What outcomes do you expect for them, and how might society and their supporters react?
Answer: I believe the established elites will read the room when it comes to the political mood in the months ahead and see if they could get away with it before making the final decision. Judging by history, one can never rule out a party dissolution and political ban for Pita. This could reignite a new round of massive street protest accompanied by political uncertainties.
- How do you see the role of the Shinawatra family in the coming years with the rise of PT leader Paethongtarn [Shinawatra] and return of Mr Thaksin?
Answer: The Shinawatra family will continue to exert and expand its dynastic political base and influence now that it has struck a truce with the established elites under a new political landscape where it is seen as the lesser of the two evils compared to Move Forward Party and the monarchy-reform (as well as anti-monarchy) movements. The success of the Shinawatra clan will largely depend on how successfully the government handles the economy, particularly if they can significantly improve the lot of the poor and the working class and be able to continue to appease the established old elites as well as the military.
