Three hours ago, a Japanese diplomat in Bangkok met with me to discuss Thai politics. One of the questions was: “Will Paetongtarn Shinawatra survive the Constitutional Court’s ruling on her audio tape conversing with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen?”
I said her chance of survival is 35% because the judges’ votes back in on July 1st were 7 to 2 in suspending her duties as PM, and even the two minority votes thought some issues should be suspended despite thinking that she can continue her role as PM, like those concerning national security and foreign policy.
The Achilles’ heel is the sentence she said to Hun Sen: “The Second Army Region Commander is on the opposite side,” and also another sentence: “Whatever you want, just say the word.”
I also told the Japanese diplomat that if Paetongtarn was confident she’d survive, she wouldn’t have asked for a six-month deferment of the ruling – which was rejected by the court today. This reflects a lack of confidence, and her opponents can ‘smell the blood.’
Past rulings have not been favourable to top politicians as well, be it then PM Srettha Thavisin, or then PM Yingluck Shinawatra, not to mention Pita Limjaroenrat and Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit.
The ruling is now set for August 29, or two weeks from now.
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