BANGKOK — Thailand’s tourism industry is bracing for a decline in foreign arrivals this year, with officials projecting about 32 million international visitors by year-end, down 9.8% from 35.5 million in 2024.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand attributes the drop to flooding in southern provinces during peak season and tensions along the Thailand-Cambodia border that have dampened tourism sentiment in recent months.
“Given the overall negative circumstances that have occurred, having foreign tourist arrivals exceed 30 million is already an excellent figure,” said Thapanee Kiatphaibool, governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand.
Thapanee reported that Thailand’s tourism sector experienced a sharp reversal in 2025, with only January posting gains. The month saw 3.71 million visitors—a 22% increase from last year—before the market turned negative for the remaining eleven months.
Tourist arrivals declined steadily throughout the year, with drops ranging from 4% to 16% each month. The steepest declines occurred during the peak summer season, with July falling 16%, June down 15%, and May dropping 14%.
The revised forecast marks a significant miss from TAT’s initial 35 million target set at the beginning of 2025.
Through December 7, Thailand recorded 30.3 million foreign tourists who spent 1.4 trillion baht (approximately $44 billion), according to preliminary government data.
Malaysia led source markets with 4.2 million visitors, followed by China with 4.1 million, India with 2.3 million, Russia with 1.7 million and South Korea with 1.4 million.
Thai Domestic Tourism Beats Target
On the domestic front, Thai travelers made 206.63 million trips throughout 2025, slightly exceeding the 205 million target and up 3% year-over-year. This generated 1.16 trillion baht in revenue, a 4% increase that met government projections.
However, even the traditionally strong December travel season showed weakness. Domestic trips fell 1% to 19.04 million, with revenue declining 2% to 108.8 billion baht—a drop attributed to economic headwinds.
34.9 Million Foreign Tourist Target for 2026
For 2026, TAT projects 34.9 million foreign visitors, a 4% increase that would generate 1.63 trillion baht ($51 billion) in revenue, up 8% year-over-year. Total tourism revenue, including domestic travel, is forecast at 2.79 trillion baht ($88 billion).
The authority is spending 25 million baht ($788,000) on year-end countdown celebrations across the country, including events in Chiang Mai and Phayao expected to draw 150,000 people. Private sector venues including ICONSIAM, CentralWorld and One Bangkok are hosting additional festivities.
TAT’s 2026 strategy focuses on three pillars: elevating Thai festivals to global events, developing local celebrations into international signature events, and attracting major international events to Thailand.
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