BANGKOK – Matichon’s editorial team organized the Matichon Forum “Thailand 2024: Surviving Geopolitics” to reflect on the current situation and ways to adapt under the influence of geopolitics affecting the world population, various sectors and Thai citizens politically, economically and socially.
Professor Dr. Surachart Bamrungsuk from the Faculty of Political Science at Chulalongkorn University opened the forum with the topic “Thailand 2024: Surviving Geopolitics”,” highlighting three alarming issues: war, pandemics and climate change. However, “geopolitics” is seen as a “global risk”
Thailand Must Adapt Quickly
The Ukraine war, which began in 2022 and will continue in 2024, is a major conflict reminiscent of the Spanish Civil War of 1936 — a precursor to the Second World War of 1939. The war in Ukraine is expected to last from the third quarter of 2024 to the second quarter of 2025. The conflict in Gaza will end, but how it ends, whether with an Israeli victory or a significant political defeat, remains uncertain.
Professor Dr. Surachart outlined several geopolitical challenges: the Ukraine conflict, the Gaza Strip, the Red Sea, the Taiwan Strait where China is conducting major military exercises, North Korea’s missile tests and the highly volatile South China Sea. If war does not break out in the South China Sea, it could happen in the Taiwan Strait. He emphasized the increasing fear of a possible third world war, especially after the turn of the year, which is reflected in the rise in gold prices.
He asked how Thailand would react to this by pointing out that the country’s bureaucratic system is slow to adapt compared to global trends. As a result, he said, Thailand has limited preparation to deal with these problems, like pushing a boulder uphill. He called on the Thai leadership to be understanding and far-sighted and warned that without adaptation, Thailand would find it difficult to compete with the major powers.
Professor Dr. Surachart also analyzed the trend of right-wing movements that have already won elections in many countries, both in Europe and Asia, which are moving towards electoral democracy. This year, more than 50 countries worldwide are holding elections, with more than 49% of the global population casting their ballots.
This includes the upcoming United States election in November, which is considered a global election as well, because if Donald Trump returns, there will be many more issues to follow.
However, the Thai right-wing groups do not follow the global trend of electoral victories. Instead, they are a backward right-wing that is fixated on a single idea: the endless dream of a coup d’état. Therefore, he believes that under the context of the volatility of Thai and global politics, coups remain an issue in Thai society due to anxiety and fear. Coups are considered a violation of international order, which the liberal world stage does not accept.
Clash of values of Superpowers
Assistant Professor Dr. Thanee Chaiwat, Chairman of the Political Economy Program, Faculty of Economics, Chulalongkorn University, gave a lecture on “The Frontline of Values in the Geopolitical Battlefield”
He said that people generally regard “China-America” as a symbol of Geopolitics, while the two superpowers have different values and the clash of values that influence Thai society’s thinking, leading to conflicts.
The conflicts between Eastern and Western values in Thai society are increasing, which also affects the way people from each culture conduct business.
The Chinese culture is skilled in negotiation and adept at handling complexity, while the foundation of Western culture is to conduct business openly, not limited to just within the country, but they cannot handle complex businesses. Therefore, no one knows what is more suitable for Thailand, or it may be possible to combine them.
Four Paths and Two Axes: The Myanmar Game
Associate Professor Dr. Dulyapak Preecharush, from the Southeast Asian Studies Program at Thammasat University discussed Thailand’s need for its own geopolitical vision with a strategy that includes four paths and two axes:
- Central relations with Myanmar: The Thai government should maintain close relations with the military government of Myanmar.
- Border relations with Myanmar: Thailand should strengthen cooperation with ethnic armed groups and the democratic government.
Cooperation with major powers and global organizations: Cooperate with China, India, Japan, the United States and the United Nations.
Cooperation within ASEAN: Strengthen relations and information exchange with Laos, the ASEAN chair, and maintain relations with other ASEAN members such as Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.
In terms of strategic defense, he said the first axis is the defense of Thailand’s sovereignty along its borders. The second axis involves establishing new zones outside Thai territory, especially in strategic areas in Myanmar, to proactively protect Thai interests and strengthen Thailand’s influence.
“Some areas that should be our zones of interest require a more proactive strategy rather than just being defensive. For example, investing in those areas, combating drug trafficking, and contributing to the promotion of human rights in surrounding regions. Instead of merely responding to problems, we should not confine ourselves to the Golden Axe territory alone,” Associate Professor Dr. Dulyapak said.
Building Negotiating Power
Associate Professor Dr. Piti Srisangnam from the Faculty of Economics at Chulalongkorn University suggested that for Thailand to be a leader in ASEAN, it needs to strengthen its negotiating position so that all sides cooperate with Thailand. This includes adhering to international principles, avoiding interference in internal activities and playing a more proactive role. He emphasized the need for Thailand to:
- Improve the efficiency of the production sector, taking into account the environmental impact, digitalization and financial sustainability.
- Improve the quality of the workforce and open up labor markets.
Become a principled state in regional forums.
“If Thailand wants to play a leading role in ASEAN, it must build negotiating power so that we do not have to choose sides, but instead, all sides come to negotiate with us. We need to adhere to principles, not interfere in internal activities, but accept international rules. We should take a more proactive role and reclaim our leadership in ASEAN. Several months have passed, and our leaders have still not visited all the ASEAN countries.”
Creating Agendas Instead of Just Responding
Independent scholar Khunakon Vanichvirun highlighted the importance of managing oneself amidst competing powers by setting agendas rather than merely reacting to events. He distinguished between the tangible aspects of geography and the imaginative constructs of political science, asserting that creating a geopolitical agenda is essential for Thailand’s positioning on the global stage.
“Political science is an imagination, a creation of human society, where humans believe in what they imagine. Therefore, if we have confidence in geopolitical figures and create an agenda within a geopolitical framework, we can achieve significant results as the traditional Thai state.”
_____
Related article:
The Rising Urgency of Thai National Security 2024
