BANGKOK — Thailand’s National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) forecasts the country’s economy to expand by 2.8% in 2025, supported by rising government spending and tourism recovery.
Mr. Danucha Pichayanan, NESDC Secretary-General, reported on February 17 that Thailand’s economy grew 3.2% in Q4/2024, bringing the full-year growth to 2.5%, up from 2% in 2023. For 2025, the NESDC projects GDP growth to range between 2.3-3.3%. Building on this momentum, private consumption is expected to grow by 3.3%, while export value is projected to increase by 3.5% in USD terms.
Key supporting factors include: (1) the increase in government expenditure, particularly investment spending; (2) the continued expansion of private consumption and the recovery of private investment; (3) the sustained recovery of the tourism sector and related services; and (4) the continual growth of merchandise exports.
The economic agency outlined key priorities for 2025, focusing on cushioning potential impacts from international trade policy changes and accelerating private investment. The government aims to boost foreign direct investment, particularly through joint ventures benefiting local SMEs.
Tourism, a crucial economic driver, remains a priority. The NESDC emphasized the need to address air pollution (PM2.5) concerns and enhance tourist safety measures while improving infrastructure, including airport capacity and transportation.
The council also highlighted plans to accelerate budget disbursement, targeting a minimum 75% disbursement of the total investment budget. Additionally, measures will be implemented to assist households and businesses with debt restructuring, particularly focusing on small-scale debtors and SMEs.
Inflation is expected to remain controlled between 0.5-1.5%, while the current account is forecast to maintain a surplus of 2.5% of GDP.
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