It is not unthinkable that the most popular political party in Thailand could be dissolved on Wednesday.
The Constitutional Court will rule three days from now if Move Forward Party acted unconstitutionally by seeking to overthrow the current political system through pledging to amend the controversial lese majeste law, in the months leading up to the May 2023 general election. The whole executive board members, including its then party leader Pita Limjaroenrat, could also be banned from politics, possibly up to 10 years.
No less than former spokesman of the party, MP Wiroj Lakhanaadisorn, posted on social media yesterday saying even the worst-case scenario would not prevent the rest of the party from marching onward – basically by forming a new political party under a new name and letting younger MPs lead the new party.
They have done this before when they were known as Future Forward Party. In February 2020, they were found by the same court to have violated the charter by borrowing 191 million baht from its then party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit. Thanathorn, along with its then executive board members, were also banned from politics for 10 years. Then the rest formed a new party under the same ideology called Move Forward Party under Pita.
Now, next week is February again.
Last year, a young and prominent MP from Move Forward Party told me the party has prepared for their “Day Zero” and because of that, he and a few select MPs are not in the executive board of the party, so they will be safe and not banned from politics for years, and able to reboot the party under a new name, under a new leadership albeit under the same ideology.
The party may be prepared for a possible dissolution, but how will its 14 million voters react? Will they take to the streets and launch another round of massive and protracted street protests that would disrupt the works for the Pheu Thai government and send Thailand into another round of political crisis that would also affect the economy – the latter still in a weak state?
There may be less people on the street this time because the so-called anti-junta, pro-democracy camp has split into pro-Pheu Thai (red shirts) and pro-MFP (orange shirts) unlike the time when both were against military dictator Gen. Prayut Chan-o-cha. Nevertheless, 14 million voters out of the population of 70 million Thais are not insignificant and it only takes a few hundred thousand protesters to paralyze Bangkok as it has been shown in the past.
My concern is when it comes to the issue of public expression of loyalty to the throne, royalists or those who pretend to be royalists tend to overdo. The court may not want to risk being seen as acting as an accessory to a concerted attempt to undermine the monarchy institution. This is a common ethos among conservative royalists and ultra-royalists who are in a state of permanent paranoia.
Thus, the majority of the court members may find it more convenient to punish the MFP than risk being accused of being disloyal or not sufficiently loyal.
On the other hand, if the court does not even allow legislators to propose to amend a law, what then is the point of having elected legislators and what hope is there for a rational and peaceful debate for change?
Dissolving the Move Forward Party for pledging to amend the royal defamation law could send a clear signal to young Move Forward Party supporters that there is no hope for change within the prevailing political system.
