BANGKOK — Thailand’s tourism industry is confronting new challenges as Chinese tourist arrivals decline due to negative news coverage about scam operations, while the latest crisis involves strained relations with Cambodia following multiple border checkpoint closures, compounded by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran with US intervention.
Middle East Conflict Impact
Tourism and Sports Minister Sorawong Thienthong reported that the Israel-Iran conflict escalated to direct combat from June 13, 2025, raising concerns among Middle Eastern and Western nations about potential regional war that could impact global economic stability, including Thailand.
The Foreign Market Analysis Department has closely monitored the situation and projected significant impacts on Israeli tourist arrivals to Thailand, particularly severe effects expected from late June through the third quarter of 2025 due to direct combat in the region, with Q3 potentially declining by 29%. The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has conducted a preliminary impact assessment divided into 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1: Recovery within Q3 2025
- Overall annual growth rate: 24% increase
- Expected Israeli tourists: approximately 350,000 visitors
- Tourist loss: approximately 77,000 visitors from the projected 52% growth trend (427,000 visitors compared to 2024)
Scenario 2: Extended conflict without negotiated ceasefire
- Severe impact expected for 6 months from mid-June to November 2025
- Recovery to normal travel patterns in December (5-6 months recovery time, similar to Israel-Hamas conflict)
- Overall annual growth rate: 19% increase
- Expected visitors: approximately 335,000
- Tourist loss: approximately 92,000 visitors from the original 52% growth projection (427,000 visitors compared to 2024)
Despite Q3 2025 contractions in both scenarios, overall annual growth rates are not expected to decline compared to 2024, due to accumulated 76% increase in Israeli tourists during the first five months of 2025. The conflict’s primary effect will be slowing growth momentum rather than causing actual decline.
Iran Market Analysis
Iranian tourist arrivals in the first five months of 2025 (January-May) totaled 28,259 visitors, down from 28,786 in the same period last year. Total Iranian tourists in 2024 numbered 64,962.
Mahan Air operates direct flights to Thailand serving Bangkok and Phuket routes with 6 weekly flights total. Direct flight services from Iran will end in June 2025, with airspace closures resulting in the loss of 1,800 passenger seats weekly.
Historical data from 2018, when the US imposed sanctions on Iran to curtail nuclear activities, showed Iranian tourist numbers to Thailand immediately dropped 60%. Based on this precedent, Iranian tourists in late 2025 may decline up to 60% due to war factors and absence of direct flights from July-December 2025.
Cambodia Border Tensions
Following adjusted operating hours at various checkpoints connecting to Cambodia since June 7, average daily tourist numbers decreased 43% compared to the previous week. The domestic market remains largely unaffected, though both the TAT’s Northeastern regional office and Ho Chi Minh office continue close monitoring.
From January-May 2025, Cambodian tourist arrivals totaled 197,658 visitors, down 14% from the same period in 2024.
Cambodian media reported on Sunday night that the Cambodian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation on June 22 advised Cambodian citizens “to refrain from non-essential travel to Thailand amid rising tensions between the two countries” and “to exercise caution,” citing the current strained state of relations between Cambodia and Thailand as the reason behind the travel advisory
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