BANGKOK – At Youyi Port, a land border port with Vietnam in Pingxiang, China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China imported 48,000 tons of fresh durians in the first quarter of this year. Among them, 35,000 tons were imported from Vietnam, an increase of 48.1%, and 13,000 tons of fresh durians were imported from Thailand.
With this trend, Vietnamese durian exports to China are expected to increase by 30 percent in 2024, while Thailand would face more risks, said an academic.
Mr. Ath Pisalvanich, an independent scholar and international economics expert, and advisor to Intelligent Research Consultant Co., Ltd. (IRC), has released an analysis on the Thai Durian Risk Index for 2024 and evaluated Thai durian over the next five years, identifying multiple risks.
At present, durian is the only important economic crop that contributes significantly to the income of farmers and their related parties. In 2023, durian exports were estimated at 140 billion baht, surpassing the export values of rubber and cassava but still lagging behind rice.
Durian exports account for 25 percent of the total export value of the four main export crops: Rice, durian, rubber and cassava. However, the value of durian exports in 2024 remains uncertain due to several risk factors.
The analysis of the DURI (Durian Risk Index) for 2024 and the next five years indicates that the Thai Durian Risk Index for 2024 is at 57, which is considered high risk as it exceeds 50. The DURI values over the next five years also consistently exceed 50, due to three main risk factors: agricultural drought, increased durian exports from Vietnam, and rising transportation costs to China.
In the last 12 years, Thai durian production has increased by 180 percent from 500,000 tons to 1.4 million tons, due to an 80 percent increase in cultivation areas across the country. However, it is predicted that the drought will reduce durian production by 50 percent over the next five years if the government does not tackle the drought problem head on.
It is estimated that Thai durian production will decrease by 53 percent or 640,000 tons over the next five years. This year, the drought is expected to reduce durian production by 42 percent or 540,000 tons.
In contrast, durian production in Vietnam has increased by 200 percent in the last 10 years. In 2023, Vietnam produced 800,000 tons of durian, up from 270,000 tons in 2014, on a cultivated area of almost 700,000 rai.
For the full year 2024, Vietnam is expected to export 500,000 tons of durian to China, while Thailand’s exports are expected to be 800,000 tons, a decrease of almost 200,000 tons. In addition, the production cost of durian in Thailand is twice as high as in Vietnam. In 2023, Vietnam’s production cost was 15 baht/kg, rising to 19 baht/kg by 2024.
“Between 2022 and 2024, the number of Chinese middle men increased by 665, while the number of Thai middle men decreased from 25 to 10. In the future, the number of Thai middle men is expected to decrease further to a maximum of five. Therefore, the most urgent national task for the government is to solve the drought problem for durian farmers to prevent the impact on farmers’ income and rising product prices, and to focus on quality production. In the next three years, Vietnamese durian quality will approach Thai durian quality”
However, in 2024, spending related to the Thai durian business is expected to reach 980 billion baht, an increase of 140 billion baht or 16.2 percent compared to 2023. The eastern region will see the highest amount of money in circulation, followed by the southern and northern regions. The business with the highest money in circulation will be the middleman, which will generate 280 billion baht.
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin commented on the competition between Vietnamese and Thai durian fruits on the Chinese market, saying that it was a matter of free competition. Every target country, including China, demands durian. Therefore, quality and taste are crucial. It is our responsibility to promote competition by developing varieties, controlling durian conditions and quality, and efficient transportation to ensure fast delivery.
According to Xinhua, the Chinese news agency, China imported approximately 6.7 billion U.S. dollars worth of durians in 2023. Thailand, the leading exporter of fresh durians to China, has seen sustained growth in demand for its produce. Economists believe that the surge in durian demand presents opportunities for the rest of Southeast Asia, not just Thailand.
Remarkable year-end figures from 2023 revealed that Vietnamese durian exports to China hit 2.1 billion U.S. dollars, capturing 31 percent of a growing durian market in its northern neighbor, according to data released by China’s General Administration of Customs.
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