Since time is a continuum, there are issues from 2023 that will continue to be relevant to Thailand in 2024. Here are some:
The return of Vacharaesorn Vivacharawongse, the estranged son of HM the King. Vicharaesorn, (AKA Than Ohn, or Khun Ohn) made two surprise visits to Thailand after being away for nearly three decades and performed numerous philanthropic activities in a private capacity as a Thai citizen.
His return, which was widely reported by the local press (which means there was no explicit instruction from the powers that be to self-censor), led to many speculations about his future role within the monarchy institution.
While this writer, like all in Thailand, is constrained by the draconian royal defamation law, which in effect makes truly critical assessment of the monarchy impossible without the risk of spending up to 15 years in prison, it is safe to say some Thais were delighted to see a down-to-earth (albeit estranged) member of the royal family who is accessible, and who “appears” to be almost just like “one of us.”
His two appearances in Thailand, the last time in earlier this month, December 2023, heightened the debate about what the Thai monarchy should look like, say two decades from now.
Inmate Thaksin Shinawatra will most likely be out of “prison,” or rather out of the Police General Hospital, before the mid of 2024 if not much earlier. Many Thais have stomached the fact that the ex-premier did not even spend a full night in a proper prison environment, while his supporters say he did not deserve to be sentenced to begin with since the prosecution were politically motivated.
The big question is whether what role will Thaksin play after he is done with “prison” time. Will he start becoming active on social media to the point where he overshadows PM Srettha Thavisin, who is widely regarded as his proxy?
Also, will fugitive former premier Yingluck Shinawatra return to Thailand in 2024 too and seek a royal pardon as this must be the best chance for her to do so since the Pheu Thai government is in power, and the old elites are (for the meantime) content to lead the Pheu Thai government continue to keep the more radical Move Forward Party at bay and in the opposition? The answer is it is highly likely.
The fates of Pita Limjaroenrat and the opposition Move Forward Party. This is arguably the thriller of next month of January 2024 as the Constitutional Court will rule of whether Pita acted unconstitutionally by owning shares of a long-defunct ITV media and whether Pita and the party he formerly led violated the constitution by having given an election pledge to reform the controversial lese majeste law.
Pita could be banned from politics for 10 years and the party disbanded. Thus, potentially sending a shock wave that could reignite a new round of massive street protests which could shake Thailand’s political landscape.
I do not think the nine constitutional judges can be ordered to vote one way or the other, but one must not forget that all were selected by the junta-appointed senate and majority of the nine are conservatives. The token liberal judges will probably make no difference as they will always be in the minority whenever they vote.
Political detainees and prisoners of conscience. The ruling Pheu Thai Party made it clear they would not support any proposed amnesty bill that includes granting amnesty to those who were charged or sentenced under the lese majeste law. The most prominent prisoner of conscience at present is monarchy-reform-movement co-leader Arnon Nampa. Should anything happen to him while in prison in 2024, the political situation could suddenly become volatile.
The initial process of drafting a new constitution is already facing a deadlock with coalition parties insisting the sections on the monarchy and national security must not be touched. Also, how all the charter drafters will be selected or elected will be another subject of fierce contention.
The economy is not doing well after nearly ten years of Prayut’s inept dictatorial and semi-dictatorial rule, and in 2024, the Srettha administration’s grace period (or honeymoon period as Thais call) is over. Poor people are hardest hit, and the government has already failed to deliver a decent minimum wage hike as promised during the election.
Srettha in 2024 will have to deliver on the economic front or at least make people believe he is doing so. Also, what will happen to the election’s pledge to push for 10,000-baht digital wallet handouts? What will its impact be if succeeded, both positive and negative? What if he failed to secure the loan for the project. Probably a snap election.
There are probably more issues. Do let me know. For the meantime. I and my colleagues at Khaosod English would like to wish you all a peaceful and happy 2024! Wishing the killings in Gaza, Israel, Ukraine, and elsewhere to end as well.
Happy new year!
