BANGKOK — The reform effort spearheaded by Thailand’s military junta is likely to bring about more conflict in Thailand, the International Crisis Group predicted in a new report released today.

In “A Coup Ordained? Thailand’s Prospects for Stability,” the Belgium-based non-profit lists several factors that suggest the possibility of future political violence stemming from the 22 May coup and the military junta’s governing policies.

“The coup and perceptions of a biased reform process may contribute to a sense of desperation among those who feel they have been deprived of their rights,” the report says. “There is a risk that dissent driven underground will erupt in confrontation.”

Riot police stationed at an anti-coup rally by Bangkok's Victory Monument in May, 2014 [Sally Mairs].

Since seizing power, Thailand's military junta, formally known as the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), has suspended democracy and civil liberties to pursue a year-long reform effort, banned public protests and political activities of any kind, and used intimidation tactics to muffle the press.

According to the ICG report, these moves call into question the NCPO’s stated aim of re-establishing democracy once the “reforms” are completed. The report also predicts that the new charter, which is currently being drafted by a junta-appointed council, is likely to “heavily” restrict the powers of elected officials.

“It is far from certain that the electorate will quietly accept such a diminished status,” the report says.

Although the 22 May coup was initially met with small-scale anti-coup rallies in several cities across Thailand, the resistance movement quickly fizzled out after the junta began to strictly enforce its ban on public gatherings and send violators to face trial in military court.

The anti-coup movement's washout has also been attributed to the early arrest of top leaders like Sombat Boonngarm-anong, and the silence of other prominent Redshirt figures, many of whom fled the country shortly after the coup.

However, in the past month there has been a small uptick in coup defiance organized by student activists. In November, five students in Khon Kaen province were briefly detained for flashing an anti-coup gesture while coup-leader turned Prime Minister Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha was giving a speech.

A handful of student activists in Bangkok have also been routinely arrested for staging anti-coup activities.

“Like the 1991 and 2006 coups, that of 2014 did not provoke an immediate violent backlash,” the ICG report reads. “But both earlier coups eventually resulted in deadly confrontations between troops and protesters. The current build-up of pressures suggests that past may prove to be prologue.”

BANGKOK — Junta chairman and Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha has vowed to speak more cordially with the press in honor of the King of Thailand’s 87th birthday on Friday.

“To celebrate His Majesty the King’s 87^th birthday, I intend to work for the public and from now on I’ll stop being so angry and start speaking politely,” Gen. Prayuth told the press at the Government House yesterday. “I’m doing it now so you [reporters] should stop teasing me as well.”

Gen. Prayuth, the former army chief who seized power in a coup d’etat on 22 May, is known for his hostile exchanges with reporters, who he frequently reprimands for scrutinizing his administration.

When a reporter asked the junta chairman last week if the media is permitted to criticise him, Gen. Prayuth responded angrily, "What have I done wrong? Tell me!"

Since seizing power in May, Gen. Prayuth has dramatically curbed freedom of expression in Thailand by banning public protests and political activities of any kind. Last month, the army ordered a state-owned TV station to drop a talk show that was airing complaints from the public about the 22 May coup. 

Although Gen. Prayuth has stopped short of subjecting the press to full-scale censorship, he has repeatedly asked the media to “cooperate” with his government.

This afternoon, Gen. Prayuth personally met with dozens of newspaper editors, including the editor of Khaosod. Media executives have been summoned to meet with junta representatives several times since the coup, but this was the first time Gen. Prayuth himself was present for the talks.  

"The media has to assist me," Gen. Prayuth said last week, after chastising the press for their coverage of flash anti-coup protests staged by student activists in Bangkok and Khon Kaen.

"The media has two duties,” he continued. “One is to explain the situation and create understanding with the people, with some critical reporting and criticism. But you also have to support the missions of this government.” 

BANGKOK — The five student activists who flashed an anti-coup gesture in front of Thailand’s junta leader last month have denied allegations that they were hired to stage their protest.

The students, members of the Dao Din activist group at Khon Kaen University, met with Thailand’s National Human Rights Commissioner today after a high-ranking army commander recently accused them of being paid 50,000 baht by politicians to flash the forbidden anti-coup salute on 19 November.

"My intelligence units have told me that they were paid to compete for space in the media with the Prime Minister," Lt.Gen. Kampanat Ruddit, commander of the 1st Region Army, said on Monday. "They were paid for about 50,000 baht by certain politicians in the region."

 
Student activists in Khon Kaen interrupt PM Prayuth Chan-ocha on 19 November to flash an anti-coup salute.

The students raised the anti-coup gesture last month while Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha, who led the 22 May coup and is now Prime Minister, was giving a speech in Khon Kaen province. The activists were promptly escorted of the premises and detained at any army base before they were released without charges.

Today, the students told Niran Pitakwatchara, a National Human Rights Commissioner, that they were not connected to or funded by any politicians. They acted merely to show their opposition to the junta's suspension of democracy, the students said.

Niran said he will arrange a meeting between the activists and Lt. Gen. Kampanat to resolve their dispute. 

Thailand's military junta, known officially as the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), banned all public protests and political activity after toppling the former elected government in May.

Anti-coup activists quickly adoped the three-finger salute, which was inspired by the "Hunger Games" film series, to symbolise opposition to the junta's rule.