YANGON — Polls have closed in Myanmar after millions cast their ballots in an election pitting the army-backed establishment against an opposition led by Aung San Suu Kyi, in the country's first fully contested polls in 25 years.

Downtown Yangon was quiet on Sunday night as voters stayed indoors to follow election results. 

Several hundred supporters of Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party gathered outside the main party headquarters in a Yangon suburb, braving rainstorms and heavy traffic. 

"I am here to watch history being made," said Ko Koo, who despite the pouring rain joined in on the festive atmosphere, dancing and singing with hundreds of others. 

Final election results were not due for several weeks, but state television showed the NLD leading by heavy margins in certain constituencies while other areas were too close to call.

The NLD released a statement late on Sunday urging supporters to accept election results without exception.

A new government will not be formed until March, when the current administration's term expires.

Human Rights Watch, which has several observers throughout the country, said late Sunday that there had been "no major issues" during the voting process. 

"So far we have not received any reports of violence or fraud," said Phil Robertson, Deputy Director of HRW's Asia Division. "We haven't seen anything that we are worried about right now."

Earlier on Sunday, opposition leader Suu Kyi – who has expressed concern over the long gap between the polls and the new government – cast her ballot in a school building near her home in Yangon, in front of crowds of supporters and hundreds of foreign journalists.

Her National League for Democracy (NLD) party is hoping to win enough seats to overturn decades of military or military-backed rule, but would require over two-thirds of the contested seats to win a parliamentary majority.

The last time the NLD contested elections, in 1990, it won a landslide victory that was later disqualified by the military. The party boycotted the last polls in 2010.

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Suu Kyi arrived at the polling station in Yangon wearing red – her party's colour – to the cheers and cries of supporters, and flanked by bodyguards.

Even though she is constitutionally barred from becoming president, the country's top post, Suu Kyi said earlier in the week that she would "run the government" if her party wins.

Local television showed incumbent President Thein Sein of the ruling army-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) arriving to vote at a polling station in Naypyidaw, the country's administrative capital.

Thein Sein told reporters that he was prepared to accept the result of the elections, even if the USDP loses. 

"We have to respect the will of the voters," he said.

The USDP has ruled the country for the last five years, and has campaigned on a message of continuity and stability.

With many former army figures among its leadership, the USDP has argued that only it can tread the path to democracy under the watch of a distrusting military. 

"We must lead the country at least five more years so that the transition process stays peaceful," said Hla Swe, a former army officer and a sitting member of parliament for the USDP.

Story: DPA / By Cod Satrusayang and Kyaw Lynn

By Hnin Yadana Zaw and Aung Hla Tun
Reuters

YANGON — Voting began on Sunday in Myanmar's first free nationwide election in 25 years, the Southeast Asian nation's biggest stride yet in a journey to democracy from dictatorship.

The party of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi is expected to win the largest share of votes cast by an electorate of about 30 million, who will choose from among thousands of candidates standing for parliament and regional assemblies.

But a legacy of military rule means she cannot become president after the election, even if her National League for Democracy, or NLD, wins by landslide, and many voters voiced doubts that the generals would accept the result.

There has been concern about the fairness of the election after it emerged that about 4 million people would be unable to cast a ballot, and on the eve of the poll the NLD said a suspiciously large number of extra voting tickets had been issued in some areas, with one family in Yangon getting 38.

Religious tension, fanned by Buddhist nationalists whose actions have intimidated Myanmar's Muslim minority, also marred the election campaign.

Still, there was a palpable sense of excitement among voters as they went to polling stations, many before dawn.

"I've done my bit for change, for the emergence of democracy," said 55-year-old former teacher Daw Myint after casting her vote for the NLD in Yangon.

Suu Kyi's car inched through a scrum of news photographers outside the Yangon polling station where the 70-year-old Nobel peace laureate came to vote and she was stony-faced as bodyguards shouted at people to move aside.

Most of the well-wishers gathered there were lucky to get more than a glimpse of the garland on her hair. A cry of "Victory! Victory!" went up from the crowd as she went inside, without a smile or a wave.

Khin May Oo, 73, who voted there earlier, said he believed the country was at a turning point, but he was worried about the army: "I'm not sure whether they will accept the election results," he said.

But in the capital, Naypyidaw, military Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing said there would be no re-run of the last free vote, in 1990, when Suu Kyi won but the army ignored the result. She spent most of the next 20 years under house arrest before her release in 2010.

Asked how he would feel if the NLD won this time, Min Aung Hlaing told reporters: "If the people choose them, there is no reason we would not accept it."

'Very Silly' Constitution

Results from the election are expected to come in slowly: officials say the winners of a few parliamentary seats will be announced by the end of Sunday, but a clear overall picture is not expected until Monday evening at the earliest.

Suu Kyi is barred from taking the presidency herself under a constitution written by the junta to preserve its power.

But if she wins a majority and is able to form Myanmar's first democratically elected government since the early 1960s, Suu Kyi says she will be the power behind the new president regardless of a constitution she has derided as "very silly".

Suu Kyi starts the contest with a sizeable handicap: even if the vote is deemed free and fair, one-quarter of parliament's seats will still be held by unelected military officers.

To form a government and choose its own president, the NLD on its own or with allies must win more than two-thirds of all seats up for grabs. By contrast, the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party, or USDP, would need far fewer seats if it secured the backing of the military bloc in parliament.

However, many voters are expected to spurn the USDP, created by the former junta and led by former military officers, because it is associated with the brutal dictatorship that installed President Thein Sein's nominally civilian government in 2011.

An inconclusive result could thrust parties representing Myanmar's myriad ethnic minorities into a king-maker role, bringing them closer to the center of power after years on the fringes.

Military Power

Even if the NLD is victorious, the military will retain significant power. It is guaranteed key ministerial positions, the constitution gives it the right to take over the government under certain circumstances, and it also has a grip on the economy through holding companies.

Until just a few years ago a pariah state, Myanmar has had little experience organizing elections.

In a pre-election speech on Friday, President Thein Sein stressed the government's commitment to ensuring a credible vote, with more than 10,000 observers scrutinizing the process in which 91 parties are taking part.

Security was tight around the country, with 40,000 specially trained police watching over polling stations, and many restaurants and markets were closed in the country's usually bustling main city, Yangon.

Wa Gyi, owner of a Yangon roadside food stall, said he had been ordered to close for the day. "It's OK for us," he said. "It's our contribution to the emergence of democracy."

Additional reporting by Aubrey Belford, Timothy McLaughlin and Andrew Marshall

To reach us about this article or another matter, please contact us by e-mail at: [email protected].

WASHINGTON — US President Barack Obama rejected the Keystone XL pipeline on Friday, saying the project would have damaged the US ability to lead on efforts to tackle climate change ahead of Paris climate talks.

"As long as I'm president of the United States, America's going hold ourselves to the same high standards to which we hold the rest of the world," Obama said after meeting with Secretary of State John Kerry on the issue.

Obama called newly installed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to inform him of the decision. He said Trudeau expressed disappointment but promised the two countries would continue to cooperate closely on energy and climate-change issues.

"The Canada-US relationship is much bigger than any one project," Trudeau said.

The proposed Keystone XL pipeline was slated to carry oil from Canada's tar sands in Alberta to the Midwestern state of Nebraska, where an existing pipeline would carry the Canadian oil to refineries in Texas.

The project called for the construction of a 1,900-kilometre-long pipeline that would pump 830,000 barrels of oil a day.

Obama's rejection of the project – reviewed for seven years by his administration – angered opposition Republicans, who had long advocated the pipeline to reduce US reliance on oil imported from the Middle East.

They have accused the Obama administration of improperly stalling on the issue.

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, the top Republican in Congress, where the conservative party holds majorities, called the move "sickening," claiming Obama was rejecting thousands of well-paying jobs, spurning the largest US trading partner and overriding the will of the American people and Congress.

Obama rejected their arguments in favour of the pipeline and its "overinflated role in our political discourse."

"It became a symbol too often used as a campaign cudgel by both parties rather than a serious policy matter," he said.

"And all of this obscured the fact that this pipeline would neither be a silver bullet for the economy, as was promised by some, nor the express lane to climate disaster proclaimed by others."

Apart from climate change, Obama cited a lack of significant economic benefits, minimal impact on US energy security and already falling US petrol prices as other reasons for the decision.

Because the pipeline would cross the US-Canada border and span six US states, the US State Department spearheaded the review and was responsible for providing a recommendation to Obama.

Kerry said the US must focus on renewable fuels and that rejecting the pipeline went beyond the numbers of "jobs that would be created, dirty fuel that would be transported here or carbon pollution that would ultimately be unleashed."

"The United States cannot ask other nations to make tough choices to address climate change if we are unwilling to make them ourselves. Denying the Keystone XL pipeline is one of those tough choices – but it is the right decision – for America and the world," he said.

The US Chamber of Commerce said the move broke Obama's promise to create jobs.

"In rejecting the Keystone XL pipeline, President Obama has put politics before the best interests of the country," Chamber president Thomas Donohue said.

A senior State Department official said Friday that the public provided 5 million comments to the reviewers.

Environmentalists feared the project would increase greenhouse gas emissions and risked local environmental damage through potential leaks in the pipeline itself.

Environmental group Greenpeace called the move a victory for environmentalists, farmers and communities along the proposed pipeline route.

"By rejecting Keystone XL and cancelling Arctic drilling leases, President Obama is starting to build a climate legacy that addresses the critical need to keep fossil fuels in the ground," Greenpeace US director Annie Leonard said.

The company behind the Keystone XL pipeline proposal said it will consider all its options, including filing a new application.

"TransCanada and its shippers remain absolutely committed to building this important energy infrastructure project," chief executive Russ Girling said.

"We will review our options to potentially file a new application for border-crossing authority … and will now analyze the stated rationale for the denial."

On Tuesday, the US had rejected a request from TransCanada to postpone review of the proposal. TransCanada's request to "pause" the project stemmed from a hope that a Republican will occupy the White House in 2017, improving the chances the pipeline would be approved.

In February, Obama vetoed a measure passed by the Republican-controlled Congress calling for the construction of the pipeline, which would pump 830,000 barrels of oil a day from Canada to the Texas Gulf Coast.

Story: DPA,  Anne K Walters and Peter Voskamp

YANGON — The outcome of the Nov. 8 elections will shape the direction of Myanmar’s democratic transition. It has been billed as the first “free and fair” election in decades.

Myanmar’s quasi-presidential system means commanding a ruling majority in parliament isn’t necessary to enact legislation. What is crucial for the major political parties is that their nominated candidate is elected as president by the parliament. If no party wins a clear majority, it is more likely that temporary alliances, rather than enduring coalitions, will be formed to smooth the passing of legislation.

The parliament elects the president, who in turn selects a cabinet. The president commands full executive power, except in key security ministries (border affairs, home affairs and defense), or in enacting changes to the constitution. The 2008 constitution, drafted by the military, stipulates that the military’s support is needed to enact major changes to the constitution or key security ministries.

Three presidential candidates are selected from both chambers of parliament and one from the military, then the parliament votes for the presidency. The two unsuccessful candidates become vice presidents.

Even if pre-election analysis proves correct and the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party loses considerable ground to Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy, section 59(f) of the 2008 constitution bars Suu Kyi from being president as her late husband and her sons are foreign nationals.

The military has made assurances that there will be no repeat of the 1990 election, the results of which were ignored by the then ruling junta, or the flawed 2010 election that was considered fraudulent and was boycotted by the National League for Democracy, or NLD. The 2008 constitution gives the military an automatic 25 percent bloc of seats in the bicameral parliament, giving them the power of veto and considerable influence in the presidential vote; their authority is enshrined in law.

Here are a series of post-election scenarios:

1. NLD wins outright majority, controls upper and lower house

After more than half a century of authoritarian rule, the NLD wins a resounding victory. The party takes control of both houses of parliament enabling them to select two presidential candidates, one each from the upper and lower houses.

In order to fulfil a parliamentary requirement that says one presidential nominee must be an ethnic candidate, the upper house candidate will be from an ethnic member of the NLD. 

Aung San Suu Kyi is made lower house speaker. The NLD winning 67 percent of all seats in parliament is enough to ensure it can outweigh the influence of the 25 percent military bloc and can select the president. 

The NLD-nominated president has the authority to appoint ministers in regional and state governments while a majority in both the lower and upper house enables legislation to pass through parliament without resistance.

The Union Solidarity and Development Party, or USDP, becomes the main opposition party.

The NLD hasn’t publicly nominated a presidential candidate. Retired general and NLD founder Tin Oo is an obvious choice but he is 88 years old and has said he would be reluctant to take the post. Htin Kyaw, a former diplomat and close aide of Suu Kyi, is also touted as a candidate.

Former parliament speaker Shwe Mann, ousted as USDP party chairman in a midnight purge in August, reputedly for upsetting military-backed factions within the party because of his warming public relationship with Aung San Suu Kyi, is a possible candidate. He has worked closely with Suu Kyi over reforms to the constitution. Suu Kyi hasn’t quite put an end to speculation he could be nominated as the NLD candidate.

Suu Kyi said at a new conference this week the party had selected someone to represent the NLD as president, but did not name the chosen candidate.

2. NLD victory, controls lower but not upper house

The NLD wins a majority but only controls the lower house and Aung San Suu Kyi is elected as the lower house speaker. The NLD nominates its own presidential candidate from the lower house.

Despite winning the popular vote, the party doesn’t have control of both chambers of parliament as the ethnic parties are over represented in the upper house due to electoral malapportionment. Because of this, the presidential candidate from the upper house is a member of an ethnic party. 

The USDP and the military jointly nominate a candidate to run in the tripartite presidential race. The NLD has enough votes to elect the president.

3. NLD fails to win outright majority, allies with ethnic/smaller parties

The NLD fails to win an outright majority in parliament and has to make alliances with the ethnic and smaller parties to make up a majority in the lower house. 

Those parties that boycotted the 2010 elections with the NLD join it in an informal alliance, particularly members of the NLD-friendly United Nationalities Alliance, for example the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy.

The NLD secures votes of some ethnic parties of the powerful National Brotherhood Federation, persuading them the NLD, traditionally seen as “Bamar” focused, can meet their interests.
Aung San Suu Kyi is elected as lower house party speaker.

As in scenario 2, the USDP and military jointly nominate a presidential candidate and an ethnic party candidate is nominated from the upper house.

Between the smaller and ethnic parties the NLD has enough votes to elect its presidential candidate.

The USDP becomes the main opposition party.

4. NLD fails to win outright majority, USDP alliance elects president

The NLD wins a majority of contested seats but not the two-thirds needed to elect its own presidential candidate.

The USDP wins enough seats to form a majority in an alliance with some ethnic and smaller parties and the 25 percent military allocation. A USDP proxy party in Kachin state, the UDPKS, the Pa-O national organisation and Kachin State Unity and Democracy Party as well as some member parties from the National Brotherhood Federation form an alliance with the USDP.

The ethnic parties control the upper house and select their own presidential candidate for the electoral college.

The NLD nominates its own candidate but it is the alliance of the USDP, the military and ethnic and smaller parties that choose the president, most likely Thein Sein. 

Htay Oo replaced Shwe Mann in August as party chairman and is considered a contender for the presidency. So too is new general secretary Tin Naing Thein, and influential party members Thein Zaw and Hla Htay Win.

The NLD becomes the main opposition party in both houses.

5. USDP secures the lower house and elects president with the military vote 

The NLD and USDP poll fairly evenly. The USDP has enough votes to select a presidential candidate from the lower house, whilst the military and ethnic parties also have candidates. 

The USDP’s candidate, as suggested in scenario 4, becomes president.

The NLD become the major opposition party in both houses.

6. “Worst case” scenarios

The NLD performs poorly amid evidence of widespread intimidation, interference with the voting process and voter fraud. International election observers declare the election results non-credible. 

Aung San Suu Kyi calls on voters and the international community to condemn the results and to mount pressure on the government. She seeks political avenues to challenge the results whilst urging her supporters to remain calm.

Or an overwhelming victory by the NLD prompts a backlash by reactionary forces, including military hardliners, the Buddhist nationalist Ma Ba Tha movement and USDP supporters. The groups start to foment instability across the country.

In both scenarios, with the increased likelihood of civil disobedience and wide-scale civil revolt, the military declares a state of emergency under the guise of securing stability. It uses its power to suspend the constitution indefinitely and establishes a military administration. It says it will return governance to quasi-civilian rule only when it can assure the country’s stability.

Story: Connor Macdonald