FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — Europe could face a severe natural gas shortage next year and needs to act now to reduce use, the International Energy Agency said in a report Thursday, warning against complacency in an energy crisis triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine after countries were able to build up storage of the fuel to heat homes and generate electricity this winter.

The IEA said Europe benefited from some Russian gas supplies over the summer and sharply reduced competition from China for scarce shiploads of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, and those factors could be one-offs, the Paris-based organization said. Along with mild weather, that has pushed down natural gas prices from August highs.

“With the recent mild weather and lower gas prices, there is a danger of complacency creeping into the conversation around Europe’s gas supplies, but we are by no means out of the woods yet,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. “This is why governments need to be taking immediate action to speed up improvements in energy efficiency and accelerate the deployment of renewables and heat pumps — and other steps to structurally reduce gas demand.”

The cutoff of most Russian pipeline gas because of the war in Ukraine has sparked a winter energy crisis in Europe. Russian deliveries were close to normal for the first half of the year. The country has since turned off all but a trickle of gas, and even that could be unavailable next year.

On top of that, if China’s imports of LNG recover to 2021 levels, that could consume over 85% of the expected increase in global supply. China’s economy has been weakening due in part to strict COVID-19 restrictions.

That all means Europe could face a shortfall of 30 billion cubic meters of gas next summer, the key period for filling supplies ahead of the winter heating season, when there is stronger demand for the fuel. The figure represents almost half the gas required to fill storage facilities in Europe to 95% capacity before the 2023-2024 winter starts.

European Union governments have committed to reduce gas consumption by 15% over the winter and are pushing conservation and renewables. Use by industry has fallen as prices have grown, and a campaign to buy LNG that comes by ship from countries like the U.S. and Qatar succeeded in filling storage to 95%, according to figures compiled by Gas Infrastructure Europe, an association of companies that operate pipelines, underground storage and LNG facilities.

Remaining pipeline gas and LNG have become much more expensive — almost 70% higher than a year ago even as prices have dropped in recent months — fueling inflation, straining consumer budgets and hurting companies that are heavy users of energy.

Because high fossil fuel prices have depressed demand, monthly carbon dioxide emissions in the European Union have declined since July, compared to the previous year, according to a report released Thursday.

The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a Helsinki-based environmental think tank, said emissions of the greenhouse gas dropped in the four months to October. They had previously risen for 16 months straight as European economies bounced back from coronavirus lockdowns.

The report’s lead author, Lauri Myllyvirta, said a surge in renewable power generation had helped push down carbon dioxide emissions in recent months.

“The post-COVID rebound in the EU’s fossil fuel use and emissions has come to an end in the past few months, due to the growth in clean energy supply led by solar power, and energy-saving measures precipitated by the fossil fuel supply crunch,” he said. “At the same time, clean energy investments and policies have expanded dramatically, which will lead to a sustained and accelerated fall in emissions in the next years.”

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Story: David McHugh. AP reporter Frank Jordans contributed from Berlin.

ISTANBUL (AP) — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg urged Turkey on Thursday to set aside its reservations over Finland and Sweden’s efforts to join the military alliance, insisting the Nordic neighbors have done enough to satisfy Ankara’s concerns about their membership.

Finland and Sweden applied for membership of the world’s biggest security alliance in the months after Russian forces invaded Ukraine in February. In doing so, they abandoned longstanding policies of military nonalignment out of concern that Russian President Vladimir Putin might target them next.

But Turkey, which joined NATO in 1952, is still not ready to endorse them after months of trilateral talks. The Turkish government wants them to crack down on individuals it considers terrorists, such as supporters of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party and people suspected of orchestrating a failed 2016 coup in Turkey.

“Finland and Sweden have delivered on their commitment to Turkey. They have become strong partners in our joint fight against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations,” Stoltenberg told reporters in Istanbul after talks with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu.

“It’s time to welcome Finland and Sweden as full members of NATO. Their accession will make our alliance stronger and our people safer,” Stoltenberg said. “In these dangerous times, it’s even more important to finalize their accession, to prevent any misunderstanding or miscalculation in Moscow.”

However, Cavusoglu said the schedule for accepting them as new members would depend on when Turkey’s demands, agreed upon in a joint memorandum, were fulfilled. The 10-article memorandum was unveiled ahead of a NATO summit in June after Turkey had threatened for weeks to veto Sweden and Finland’s applications.

“These two countries must take important steps on combatting terror because one of the biggest threats NATO is facing today is terrorism,” the Turkish minister said.

“It’s not possible to say right now that the two countries have completely implemented all aspects of the memorandum,” he added, while stressing that Turkey supports NATO’s enlargement.

Cavusoglu said Turkey sees the new government in Sweden as “more determined” to fulfill the memorandum signed in Madrid. The new Swedish prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, is scheduled to visit Ankara on Nov 8, he said.

Turkey also has called for the lifting of an arms embargo imposed following its 2019 incursion into northern Syria to combat Kurdish militants. Sweden last month said it would lift the embargo, a step seen as aiming to secure Ankara’s approval.

Cavusoglu acknowledged Sweden had changed laws and welcomed the lifting of the arms embargo as “an important step.” But he warned the changes must be permanent and Sweden must not reverse any steps once it secures NATO membership.

But Stoltenberg, in the strongest public statement of support that he has made for the candidates while on Turkish soil, was adamant they have done enough.

“I recognize your concerns. At the same time, it is clear Finland and Sweden have delivered on the memorandum and are committed to the long-term partnership with Turkey,” the former Norwegian prime minister told Cavusoglu.

Cavusoglu also underlined that Turkey doesn’t have any major issues with Finland but because the Nordic countries want their membership process to go in tandem, the two were receiving the “same treatment” from Ankara.

All 30 NATO member countries must officially ratify the accession protocol for Finland and Sweden to join the alliance. Only the parliaments of Turkey and Hungary have yet to do so.

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Story: Zeynep Bilginsoy and Lorne Cook. Cook reported from Brussels.

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Polish soldiers began laying razor wire Wednesday along Poland’s border with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad after the government ordered the construction of a barrier to prevent what it fears could become another migration crisis.

Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said a recent decision by Russia’s aviation authority to launch flights from the Middle East and North Africa to Kaliningrad led him to reinforce Poland’s 210-kilometer (130-mile) border with Kaliningrad.

“Due to the disturbing information regarding the launch of flights from the Middle East and North Africa to Kaliningrad, I have decided to take measures that will strengthen the security on the Polish border with the Kaliningrad oblast by sealing this border,” Blaszczak said.

Blaszczak said the barrier along the border would be made of three rows of razor wire measuring 2½ meters (eight feet) high and 3 meters (10 feet) wide and feature an electronic monitoring system and cameras. The Polish side also will have a fence to keep animals away from the razor wire.

Before now, the sparsely inhabited border area was patrolled but had no physical barrier.

To the south, Poland’s border with Belarus became the site of a major migration crisis last year, with large numbers of people from the Middle East entering illegally. Polish and other EU leaders accused the Belarusian government — an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin — of masterminding the migration to create chaos and division within the 27-nation bloc.

Poland erected similar rolls of razor wire before building a permanent high steel wall on the border with Belarus, which was completed in June.

Blaszczak, the defense minister, said the government was persuaded to install fencing near Kaliningrad because of Poland’s experience at the Belarus border, where a similar action “prevented a hybrid attack from Belarus or significantly slowed down this attack.”

The chief executive of Khrabrovo Airport in Kaliningrad, Alexander Korytnyi, told Russia’s Interfax news agency on Oct. 3 that the facility would seek to “attract airlines from countries in the Persian Gulf and Asia,” including the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

In the last month, Poland’s Border Guard agency has not detected anyone attempting to enter the country illegally from Kaliningrad, although a few mushroom pickers wandered into the area by mistake, agency spokeswoman Miroslawa Aleksandrowicz told state news agency PAP.

Some in Poland are criticizing the barrier.

Zuzanna Dabrowska, a commentator writing for the conservative daily newpaper Rzeczpospolita, wrote Wednesday that the barrier would be ineffective and a hazard because razor wire is dangerous for animals and people who try to cross it.

She argued that people from the Middle East and Africa were still trying to illegally enter Poland from Belarus despite the border wall.

“The barrier did not scare them away, because they have no safe retreat, pressured by Belarusian border guards,” Dabrowska wrote.

Poland’s government has strongly criticized critics of the Belarus border wall, depicting them as helping those who seek to harm Poland.

The exclave of Kaliningrad, with a population of about 1 million, is the northern part of what used to be the German territory of East Prussia and became part of the Soviet Union after World War II.

It is home to the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Navy and also an industrial center. Seaside dunes and resorts, what’s left of the old Prussian architecture in the city of Kaliningrad, and maritime and amber museums are among the tourist attractions.

Soldiers began laying the razor wire in Wisztyniec, the place where the borders of Poland, Russia and Lithuania meet. Lithuania, like Poland, is a member of both NATO and the European Union.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined Wednesday to comment on the Kaliningrad border barrier, describing it as “a Polish matter.”

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Story: Vanessa Gera.